接通真实昨收成交额并前置校验表达式字段

Cargo.lock

@@ -37,6 +37,15 @@ version = "2.11.1"
 source = "registry+https://github.com/rust-lang/crates.io-index"
 checksum = "c4512299f36f043ab09a583e57bceb5a5aab7a73db1805848e8fef3c9e8c78b3"
 
+[[package]]
+name = "block-buffer"
+version = "0.10.4"
+source = "registry+https://github.com/rust-lang/crates.io-index"
+checksum = "3078c7629b62d3f0439517fa394996acacc5cbc91c5a20d8c658e77abd503a71"
+dependencies = [
+ "generic-array",
+]
+
 [[package]]
 name = "bumpalo"
 version = "3.20.2"
@@ -99,6 +108,15 @@ version = "0.8.7"
 source = "registry+https://github.com/rust-lang/crates.io-index"
 checksum = "773648b94d0e5d620f64f280777445740e61fe701025087ec8b57f45c791888b"
 
+[[package]]
+name = "cpufeatures"
+version = "0.2.17"
+source = "registry+https://github.com/rust-lang/crates.io-index"
+checksum = "59ed5838eebb26a2bb2e58f6d5b5316989ae9d08bab10e0e6d103e656d1b0280"
+dependencies = [
+ "libc",
+]
+
 [[package]]
 name = "crossbeam-deque"
 version = "0.8.7"
@@ -130,6 +148,26 @@ version = "0.2.4"
 source = "registry+https://github.com/rust-lang/crates.io-index"
 checksum = "460fbee9c2c2f33933d720630a6a0bac33ba7053db5344fac858d4b8952d77d5"
 
+[[package]]
+name = "crypto-common"
+version = "0.1.7"
+source = "registry+https://github.com/rust-lang/crates.io-index"
+checksum = "78c8292055d1c1df0cce5d180393dc8cce0abec0a7102adb6c7b1eef6016d60a"
+dependencies = [
+ "generic-array",
+ "typenum",
+]
+
+[[package]]
+name = "digest"
+version = "0.10.7"
+source = "registry+https://github.com/rust-lang/crates.io-index"
+checksum = "9ed9a281f7bc9b7576e61468ba615a66a5c8cfdff42420a70aa82701a3b1e292"
+dependencies = [
+ "block-buffer",
+ "crypto-common",
+]
+
 [[package]]
 name = "either"
 version = "1.17.0"
@@ -153,6 +191,8 @@ dependencies = [
  "rhai",
  "serde",
  "serde_json",
+ "sha2",
+ "ta-lib",
  "thiserror",
 ]
 
@@ -162,6 +202,16 @@ version = "0.1.9"
 source = "registry+https://github.com/rust-lang/crates.io-index"
 checksum = "5baebc0774151f905a1a2cc41989300b1e6fbb29aff0ceffa1064fdd3088d582"
 
+[[package]]
+name = "generic-array"
+version = "0.14.7"
+source = "registry+https://github.com/rust-lang/crates.io-index"
+checksum = "85649ca51fd72272d7821adaf274ad91c288277713d9c18820d8499a7ff69e9a"
+dependencies = [
+ "typenum",
+ "version_check",
+]
+
 [[package]]
 name = "getrandom"
 version = "0.2.17"
@@ -431,6 +481,17 @@ dependencies = [
  "serde_core",
 ]
 
+[[package]]
+name = "sha2"
+version = "0.10.9"
+source = "registry+https://github.com/rust-lang/crates.io-index"
+checksum = "a7507d819769d01a365ab707794a4084392c824f54a7a6a7862f8c3d0892b283"
+dependencies = [
+ "cfg-if",
+ "cpufeatures",
+ "digest",
+]
+
 [[package]]
 name = "shlex"
 version = "1.3.0"
@@ -477,6 +538,19 @@ dependencies = [
  "unicode-ident",
 ]
 
+[[package]]
+name = "ta-lib"
+version = "0.8.1"
+source = "git+https://github.com/TA-Lib/ta-lib.git?rev=dd5a90259a3f9e04e2da9f38bf0719a841b40108#dd5a90259a3f9e04e2da9f38bf0719a841b40108"
+dependencies = [
+ "ta-lib-dispatch",
+]
+
+[[package]]
+name = "ta-lib-dispatch"
+version = "0.1.2"
+source = "git+https://github.com/TA-Lib/ta-lib.git?rev=dd5a90259a3f9e04e2da9f38bf0719a841b40108#dd5a90259a3f9e04e2da9f38bf0719a841b40108"
+
 [[package]]
 name = "thin-vec"
 version = "0.2.16"
@@ -512,6 +586,12 @@ dependencies = [
  "crunchy",
 ]
 
+[[package]]
+name = "typenum"
+version = "1.20.1"
+source = "registry+https://github.com/rust-lang/crates.io-index"
+checksum = "b6f5e870be6c3b371b77fe0ee0bafb859fa4964b4404c27de1d380043c4dda20"
+
 [[package]]
 name = "unicode-ident"
 version = "1.0.24"

Cargo.toml

@@ -11,6 +11,7 @@ version = "0.1.0"
 authors = ["OpenAI Codex"]
 
 [workspace.dependencies]
+sha2 = "=0.10.9"
 ahash = "=0.8.12"
 chrono = { version = "=0.4.44", features = ["serde"] }
 indexmap = { version = "=2.11.4", features = ["serde"] }
@@ -18,5 +19,5 @@ reqwest = { version = "=0.12.24", default-features = false, features = ["json",
 rayon = "=1.12.0"
 rhai = { version = "=1.23.6", features = ["sync"] }
 serde = { version = "=1.0.228", features = ["derive"] }
-serde_json = "=1.0.145"
+serde_json = { version = "=1.0.145", features = ["float_roundtrip"] }
 thiserror = "=2.0.18"

crates/fidc-core/Cargo.toml

@@ -13,4 +13,6 @@ rayon.workspace = true
 rhai.workspace = true
 serde.workspace = true
 serde_json.workspace = true
+sha2.workspace = true
 thiserror.workspace = true
+ta-lib = { git = "https://github.com/TA-Lib/ta-lib.git", rev = "dd5a90259a3f9e04e2da9f38bf0719a841b40108" }

crates/fidc-core/examples/factor-event-kernel.rs

@@ -0,0 +1,35 @@
+use fidc_core::factor_events::{self, Expr, Frame};
+use serde::Deserialize;
+use serde_json::{Value, json};
+use std::io::{self, Read};
+
+#[derive(Deserialize)]
+#[serde(deny_unknown_fields)]
+struct Request {
+    expressions: std::collections::BTreeMap<String, Expr>,
+    frame: Frame,
+}
+
+fn main() -> Result<(), Box<dyn std::error::Error>> {
+    let mut input = String::new();
+    io::stdin().read_to_string(&mut input)?;
+    let output = if input.trim().is_empty() {
+        factor_events::catalog()
+    } else {
+        let request: Request = serde_json::from_str(&input)?;
+        let results = request
+            .expressions
+            .iter()
+            .map(|(id, expr)| {
+                let result = match factor_events::evaluate(expr, &request.frame) {
+                    Ok(v) => json!({"result":v}),
+                    Err(e) => json!({"error":e}),
+                };
+                (id.clone(), result)
+            })
+            .collect::<std::collections::BTreeMap<String, Value>>();
+        json!({"contract":factor_events::CONTRACT,"results":results,"read_only":true})
+    };
+    println!("{}", serde_json::to_string(&output)?);
+    Ok(())
+}

crates/fidc-core/src/daily_patterns.rs

@@ -1,6 +1,6 @@
 //! Completed-session OHLCV rules shared by research and strategy execution.
 use crate::DataSet;
-use chrono::NaiveDate;
+use chrono::{FixedOffset, NaiveDate, TimeZone};
 use serde::{Deserialize, Serialize};
 use serde_json::{Value, json};
 use std::collections::{BTreeMap, BTreeSet};
@@ -9,6 +9,7 @@ pub const CONTRACT: &str = "fidc_daily_ohlcv_pattern_v1";
 
 pub fn catalog() -> Value {
     json!({"contract":CONTRACT,"templates":{
+        "expression":{"label":"指标与事件条件","parameters":{"history_window":[300,2,3000]},"stages":["selection","buy","sell","position_management"],"method":"冻结历史窗口与表达式；预热不足或未定义值不产生信号。复用共享指标事件内核，不修改既有任务。"},
         "strength":{"label":"趋势强势","parameters":{"momentum_window":[25,5,120],"fast_window":[20,2,60],"slow_window":[60,20,252]},"stages":["selection","buy"],"method":"收盘价>短均线>长均线，按区间动量排序；不是当日金叉。"},
         "breakout":{"label":"前高突破","parameters":{"high_window":[60,5,252],"volume_window":[10,2,60],"volume_multiple":[1.3,1,10],"max_upper_shadow":[0.1,0,1]},"stages":["selection","buy"],"method":"收盘突破此前N日最高价，量达到此前M日均量倍数，上影比例受限；参考窗口不含当日。"},
         "volume_spike":{"label":"放量上涨","parameters":{"volume_window":[5,2,60],"volume_multiple":[3.0,1,10]},"stages":["selection","buy"],"method":"当日上涨且量达到此前N日最大量的指定倍数；不等同价格创新高。"},
@@ -24,9 +25,39 @@ pub struct PatternSpec {
     pub template: String,
     #[serde(default)]
     pub parameters: BTreeMap<String, Value>,
+    #[serde(default, skip_serializing_if = "Option::is_none")]
+    pub expression: Option<crate::factor_events::Expr>,
 }
 impl PatternSpec {
     pub fn validate(mut self) -> Result<Self, String> {
+        if (self.template == "expression") != self.expression.is_some() {
+            return Err("expression_template_requires_expression_only".into());
+        }
+        if let Some(expr) = &self.expression {
+            let supported = [
+                "open",
+                "high",
+                "low",
+                "close",
+                "volume",
+                "raw_open",
+                "raw_high",
+                "raw_low",
+                "raw_close",
+                "prev_close",
+                "amount",
+            ];
+            let missing = crate::factor_events::field_dependencies(expr)
+                .into_iter()
+                .filter(|f| !supported.contains(&f.as_str()))
+                .collect::<Vec<_>>();
+            if !missing.is_empty() {
+                return Err(format!(
+                    "expression_source_mapping_required: {}",
+                    missing.join(",")
+                ));
+            }
+        }
         let catalog = catalog();
         let definition = catalog["templates"]
             .get(&self.template)
@@ -66,6 +97,7 @@ impl PatternSpec {
     }
     pub fn history_len(&self) -> usize {
         match self.template.as_str() {
+            "expression" => self.n("history_window"),
             "strength" => self.n("slow_window").max(self.n("momentum_window") + 1),
             "breakout" => self.n("high_window").max(self.n("volume_window")) + 1,
             "volume_spike" | "volume_down" => self.n("volume_window") + 1,
@@ -85,6 +117,10 @@ pub struct PatternBar {
     pub low: Option<f64>,
     pub close: Option<f64>,
     pub volume: Option<f64>,
+    #[serde(default)]
+    pub prev_close: Option<f64>,
+    #[serde(default)]
+    pub amount: Option<f64>,
     pub adjustment_factor_backward1: Option<f64>,
     pub paused: Option<bool>,
     #[serde(default)]
@@ -246,6 +282,111 @@ pub fn evaluate(
     result.anchor = json!({"date":days[len-1],"raw_close":by_day[&days[len-1]].close,"factor":by_day[&days[len-1]].adjustment_factor_backward1});
     let mut score = None;
     match spec.template.as_str() {
+        "expression" => {
+            let zone = FixedOffset::east_opt(8 * 3600).unwrap();
+            let timestamps = days
+                .iter()
+                .map(|d| {
+                    zone.from_local_datetime(&d.and_hms_opt(16, 0, 0).unwrap())
+                        .single()
+                        .unwrap()
+                })
+                .collect::<Vec<_>>();
+            let anchor = by_day[&days[len - 1]].adjustment_factor_backward1.unwrap();
+            let mut fields = BTreeMap::from([
+                (
+                    "open".into(),
+                    prices.iter().map(|b| Some(b.0 / anchor)).collect(),
+                ),
+                (
+                    "high".into(),
+                    prices.iter().map(|b| Some(b.1 / anchor)).collect(),
+                ),
+                (
+                    "low".into(),
+                    prices.iter().map(|b| Some(b.2 / anchor)).collect(),
+                ),
+                (
+                    "close".into(),
+                    prices.iter().map(|b| Some(b.3 / anchor)).collect(),
+                ),
+                ("volume".into(), prices.iter().map(|b| Some(b.4)).collect()),
+            ]);
+            for (name, index) in [
+                ("raw_open", 0),
+                ("raw_high", 1),
+                ("raw_low", 2),
+                ("raw_close", 3),
+            ] {
+                fields.insert(
+                    name.into(),
+                    days.iter()
+                        .map(|d| {
+                            let b = by_day[d];
+                            [b.open, b.high, b.low, b.close][index]
+                        })
+                        .collect(),
+                );
+            }
+            let needed =
+                crate::factor_events::field_dependencies(spec.expression.as_ref().unwrap());
+            for name in ["prev_close", "amount"] {
+                if !needed.contains(name) {
+                    continue;
+                }
+                let values = days
+                    .iter()
+                    .map(|d| {
+                        let b = by_day[d];
+                        let value = number(
+                            if name == "prev_close" {
+                                b.prev_close
+                            } else {
+                                b.amount
+                            },
+                            &series.symbol,
+                            *d,
+                            name,
+                        )?;
+                        if value < 0.0 || (name == "prev_close" && value == 0.0) {
+                            return Err(format!(
+                                "pattern_input_invalid: {} {d} {name}",
+                                series.symbol
+                            ));
+                        }
+                        Ok(Some(value))
+                    })
+                    .collect::<Result<Vec<_>, String>>()?;
+                fields.insert(name.into(), values);
+            }
+            let frame = crate::factor_events::Frame {
+                symbol: series.symbol.clone(),
+                frequency: "1d".into(),
+                decision_at: *timestamps.last().unwrap(),
+                available_at: timestamps.clone(),
+                timestamps,
+                fields,
+            };
+            let values = crate::factor_events::evaluate(spec.expression.as_ref().unwrap(), &frame)?;
+            let latest = values.values.last().copied().flatten();
+            result.values["expression"] = json!(values);
+            result.values["expression_contract"] = json!(crate::factor_events::CONTRACT);
+            result.values["price_policy"] = json!("backward1_anchored_to_decision_close");
+            result.score = latest;
+            if latest.is_none() {
+                result.exclusion = Some(
+                    json!({"reason":"expression_undefined_or_warmup","signal_date":days.last()}),
+                );
+            } else if values.value_type == crate::factor_events::ValueType::Boolean {
+                result.matched = latest == Some(1.0);
+                result
+                    .checks
+                    .push(json!({"label":"组合条件","actual":latest,"operator":"==","threshold":1,"passed":result.matched}));
+            } else {
+                return Err("expression_signal_requires_boolean: 数值因子必须显式比较或组合，不能自动视为买卖信号".into());
+            }
+            return Ok(result);
+        }
         "strength" => {
             let fast = mean(prices[len - spec.n("fast_window")..].iter().map(|b| b.3))?;
             let slow = mean(prices[len - spec.n("slow_window")..].iter().map(|b| b.3))?;
@@ -410,6 +551,8 @@ pub fn evaluate_dataset(
                 low: Some(b.low),
                 close: Some(b.close),
                 volume: Some(b.volume as f64),
+                prev_close: data.factor_numeric_value(d, symbol, "pre_close"),
+                amount: data.factor_numeric_value(d, symbol, "amount"),
                 adjustment_factor_backward1: data
                     .factor(d, symbol)
                     .and_then(|f| f.adjustment_factor_backward1),
@@ -491,10 +634,75 @@ pub fn expression_specs(expression: &str) -> Result<Vec<PatternSpec>, String> {
 #[cfg(test)]
 mod tests {
     use super::*;
+    #[test]
+    fn expression_condition_preserves_native_types_and_rejects_numeric_as_signal() {
+        let make = |expression: Value| {
+            serde_json::from_value::<PatternSpec>(json!({"template":"expression","parameters":{"history_window":3},"expression":expression})).unwrap().validate().unwrap()
+        };
+        let spec = make(
+            json!({"kind":"operator","name":"GT","args":[{"kind":"field","name":"close"},{"kind":"indicator","name":"SMA","inputs":[{"kind":"field","name":"close"}],"parameters":{"optInTimePeriod":2}}]}),
+        );
+        let days = ["2026-09-04", "2026-09-07", "2026-09-08"]
+            .map(|d| NaiveDate::parse_from_str(d, "%Y-%m-%d").unwrap());
+        let series = PatternSeries {
+            symbol: "TEST".into(),
+            name: None,
+            listed_at: None,
+            bars: days
+                .iter()
+                .enumerate()
+                .map(|(i, &date)| {
+                    let p = 10.0 + i as f64;
+                    PatternBar {
+                        date,
+                        open: Some(p),
+                        high: Some(p),
+                        low: Some(p),
+                        close: Some(p),
+                        volume: Some(100.0),
+                        prev_close: Some(p - 1.0),
+                        amount: Some(p * 100.0),
+                        adjustment_factor_backward1: Some(1.0),
+                        paused: Some(false),
+                        source_path: None,
+                    }
+                })
+                .collect(),
+        };
+        let result = evaluate(&spec, &days, &series).unwrap();
+        assert!(result.matched);
+        assert_eq!(result.score, Some(1.0));
+        let vwap_spec = make(
+            json!({"kind":"operator","name":"GT","args":[{"kind":"operator","name":"DIV","args":[{"kind":"field","name":"amount"},{"kind":"field","name":"volume"}]},{"kind":"field","name":"prev_close"}]}),
+        );
+        assert!(evaluate(&vwap_spec, &days, &series).unwrap().matched);
+        let mut missing_amount = series.clone();
+        missing_amount.bars[1].amount = None;
+        assert!(
+            evaluate(&vwap_spec, &days, &missing_amount)
+                .unwrap_err()
+                .contains("amount")
+        );
+        let mut missing_previous=series.clone();missing_previous.bars[1].prev_close=None;
+        assert!(evaluate(&vwap_spec,&days,&missing_previous).unwrap_err().contains("prev_close"));
+        assert!(
+            evaluate(
+                &make(json!({"kind":"field","name":"close"})),
+                &days,
+                &series
+            )
+            .unwrap_err()
+            .contains("requires_boolean")
+        );
+        let mut missing = series.clone();
+        missing.bars[1].close = None;
+        assert!(evaluate(&spec, &days, &missing).is_err());
+    }
     fn fixture(template: &str) -> (PatternSpec, Vec<NaiveDate>, PatternSeries) {
         let spec = PatternSpec {
             template: template.into(),
             parameters: BTreeMap::new(),
+            expression: None,
         }
         .validate()
         .unwrap();
@@ -515,6 +723,8 @@ mod tests {
                     low: Some(c),
                     close: Some(c),
                     volume: Some(1000.0),
+                    prev_close: Some(c - 1.0),
+                    amount: Some(c * 1000.0),
                     adjustment_factor_backward1: Some(1.0),
                     paused: Some(false),
                     source_path: Some("fixture.parquet".into()),

crates/fidc-core/src/factor_cross_section.rs

@@ -0,0 +1,190 @@
+//! Cross-sectional operators require an explicit complete universe, never a UI page.
+use serde::{Deserialize, Serialize};
+use std::collections::{BTreeMap, BTreeSet};
+
+pub const OPERATORS: &[&str] = &[
+    "RANK",
+    "PERCENTILE",
+    "TOP",
+    "BOTTOM",
+    "TOP_PERCENT",
+    "BOTTOM_PERCENT",
+    "WINSORIZE",
+    "INDUSTRY_NEUTRALIZE",
+    "SIZE_NEUTRALIZE",
+];
+
+#[derive(Clone, Debug, Deserialize)]
+#[serde(deny_unknown_fields)]
+pub struct Observation {
+    pub symbol: String,
+    pub value: f64,
+    pub industry: Option<String>,
+    pub market_cap: Option<f64>,
+}
+#[derive(Debug, Serialize)]
+pub struct Output {
+    pub symbol: String,
+    pub value: f64,
+}
+
+fn mean(values: &[f64]) -> f64 {
+    let base = values[0];
+    base + values
+        .iter()
+        .skip(1)
+        .map(|v| (v - base) / values.len() as f64)
+        .sum::<f64>()
+}
+fn quantile(sorted: &[f64], p: f64) -> f64 {
+    let x = p * (sorted.len() - 1) as f64;
+    let l = x.floor() as usize;
+    let r = x.ceil() as usize;
+    sorted[l] + (sorted[r] - sorted[l]) * (x - l as f64)
+}
+
+pub fn evaluate(
+    name: &str,
+    universe: &[String],
+    rows: &[Observation],
+    threshold: f64,
+) -> Result<Vec<Output>, String> {
+    let expected = universe.iter().collect::<BTreeSet<_>>();
+    if rows.is_empty()
+        || rows.len() > 20_000
+        || expected.len() != universe.len()
+        || rows.len() != universe.len()
+        || rows.iter().map(|r| &r.symbol).collect::<BTreeSet<_>>() != expected
+        || rows.iter().any(|r| !r.value.is_finite())
+    {
+        return Err("cross_section_incomplete_or_invalid_universe".into());
+    }
+    if !OPERATORS.contains(&name) || !threshold.is_finite() {
+        return Err("cross_section_operator_invalid".into());
+    }
+    if matches!(name, "TOP" | "BOTTOM") && (threshold < 1.0 || threshold.fract() != 0.0)
+        || matches!(name, "TOP_PERCENT" | "BOTTOM_PERCENT") && !(0.0..=1.0).contains(&threshold)
+        || name == "WINSORIZE" && !(0.0..0.5).contains(&threshold)
+    {
+        return Err("cross_section_threshold_invalid".into());
+    }
+    let mut sorted = rows.iter().map(|r| r.value).collect::<Vec<_>>();
+    sorted.sort_by(f64::total_cmp);
+    let mut industry_values: BTreeMap<&str, Vec<f64>> = BTreeMap::new();
+    if name == "INDUSTRY_NEUTRALIZE" {
+        for row in rows {
+            let industry = row
+                .industry
+                .as_deref()
+                .filter(|v| !v.trim().is_empty())
+                .ok_or("cross_section_pit_industry_missing")?;
+            industry_values.entry(industry).or_default().push(row.value);
+        }
+    }
+    let size = if name == "SIZE_NEUTRALIZE" {
+        let x = rows
+            .iter()
+            .map(|r| {
+                r.market_cap
+                    .filter(|v| v.is_finite() && *v > 0.0)
+                    .map(f64::ln)
+                    .ok_or("cross_section_market_cap_missing")
+            })
+            .collect::<Result<Vec<_>, _>>()?;
+        let xm = mean(&x);
+        let ym = mean(&sorted);
+        let variance = x.iter().map(|v| (v - xm).powi(2)).sum::<f64>();
+        if variance == 0.0 || rows.len() < 3 {
+            return Err("cross_section_size_regression_unidentified".into());
+        }
+        let beta = x
+            .iter()
+            .zip(rows)
+            .map(|(x, y)| (x - xm) * (y.value - ym))
+            .sum::<f64>()
+            / variance;
+        Some((x, xm, ym, beta))
+    } else {
+        None
+    };
+    rows.iter()
+        .enumerate()
+        .map(|(index, row)| {
+            let low = sorted.partition_point(|v| *v < row.value);
+            let high = sorted.partition_point(|v| *v <= row.value);
+            let rank = (low + 1 + high) as f64 / 2.0;
+            let descending = (rows.len() + 1) as f64 - rank;
+            let percentile = if rows.len() == 1 {
+                0.5
+            } else {
+                (rank - 1.0) / (rows.len() - 1) as f64
+            };
+            let value = match name {
+                "RANK" => descending,
+                "PERCENTILE" => percentile,
+                "TOP" => f64::from(descending <= threshold),
+                "BOTTOM" => f64::from(rank <= threshold),
+                "TOP_PERCENT" => f64::from(descending <= threshold * rows.len() as f64),
+                "BOTTOM_PERCENT" => f64::from(rank <= threshold * rows.len() as f64),
+                "WINSORIZE" => row.value.clamp(
+                    quantile(&sorted, threshold),
+                    quantile(&sorted, 1.0 - threshold),
+                ),
+                "INDUSTRY_NEUTRALIZE" => {
+                    row.value - mean(&industry_values[row.industry.as_deref().unwrap()])
+                }
+                "SIZE_NEUTRALIZE" => {
+                    let (x, xm, ym, beta) = size.as_ref().unwrap();
+                    row.value - (ym + beta * (x[index] - xm))
+                }
+                _ => unreachable!(),
+            };
+            if !value.is_finite() {
+                return Err("cross_section_result_nonfinite".into());
+            }
+            Ok(Output {
+                symbol: row.symbol.clone(),
+                value,
+            })
+        })
+        .collect()
+}
+
+#[cfg(test)]
+mod tests {
+    use super::*;
+    fn rows() -> Vec<Observation> {
+        [1.0, 3.0, 3.0, 4.0]
+            .iter()
+            .enumerate()
+            .map(|(i, &value)| Observation {
+                symbol: format!("S{i}"),
+                value,
+                industry: Some(if i < 2 { "A" } else { "B" }.into()),
+                market_cap: Some(10.0 + i as f64),
+            })
+            .collect()
+    }
+    #[test]
+    fn ties_keep_equal_rank_and_missing_universe_rejects() {
+        let r = rows();
+        let u = r.iter().map(|r| r.symbol.clone()).collect::<Vec<_>>();
+        let out = evaluate("RANK", &u, &r, 0.0).unwrap();
+        assert_eq!(
+            out.iter().map(|r| r.value).collect::<Vec<_>>(),
+            vec![4.0, 2.5, 2.5, 1.0]
+        );
+        assert!(evaluate("RANK", &u, &r[..3], 0.0).is_err());
+    }
+    #[test]
+    fn neutralization_preserves_input_order() {
+        let r = rows();
+        let u = r.iter().map(|r| r.symbol.clone()).collect::<Vec<_>>();
+        let out = evaluate("INDUSTRY_NEUTRALIZE", &u, &r, 0.0).unwrap();
+        assert_eq!(
+            out.iter().map(|r| r.value).collect::<Vec<_>>(),
+            vec![-1.0, 1.0, -0.5, 0.5]
+        );
+        assert!(evaluate("TOP_PERCENT", &u, &r, 20.0).is_err());
+    }
+}

crates/fidc-core/src/lib.rs

@@ -3,6 +3,8 @@ pub mod calendar;
 pub mod cost;
 pub mod data;
 pub mod daily_patterns;
+pub mod factor_events;
+pub mod factor_cross_section;
 pub mod engine;
 pub mod event_bus;
 pub mod events;
@@ -15,6 +17,7 @@ pub mod platform_expr_strategy;
 pub mod platform_runtime_schema;
 pub mod platform_strategy_spec;
 pub mod portfolio;
+pub mod portfolio_loss;
 pub mod risk_control;
 pub mod rules;
 pub mod scheduler;
@@ -84,6 +87,7 @@ pub use platform_strategy_spec::{
     platform_expr_config_from_value, validate_strategy_risk_policy_fields,
 };
 pub use portfolio::{CashReceivable, HoldingSummary, PendingCashFlow, PortfolioState, Position};
+pub use portfolio_loss::{ClosedPortfolioSession, PortfolioLossConfig, PortfolioLossDecision, PortfolioLossError, PortfolioLossState};
 pub use risk_control::{
     ChinaAShareRiskControl, FidcRiskControlConfig, FidcRiskDecisionAudit, RiskCheckScope,
     StaticRiskRuleConfig, TradingConstraintConfig,

crates/fidc-core/src/platform_expr_strategy.rs

@@ -3,7 +3,8 @@ use std::collections::{BTreeMap, BTreeSet};
 use std::sync::Arc;
 
 use ahash::{AHashMap, AHashSet};
-use chrono::{Datelike, Duration, NaiveDate, NaiveDateTime, NaiveTime, Timelike};
+use chrono::{Datelike, Duration, FixedOffset, NaiveDate, NaiveDateTime, NaiveTime, TimeZone, Timelike, Utc};
+use sha2::{Digest, Sha256};
 use rhai::{AST, Dynamic, Engine, ImmutableString, Map, Scope};
 
 use crate::broker::{MatchingType, RebalanceCashMode, SlippageModel};
@@ -16,7 +17,7 @@ use crate::data::{
     decision_market_cap_bn,
 };
 use crate::engine::BacktestError;
-use crate::events::OrderSide;
+use crate::events::{OrderSide, ProcessEvent, ProcessEventKind};
 use crate::fixed_point::FixedMoney;
 use crate::futures::{
     FuturesContractSpec, FuturesDirection, FuturesOrderIntent, FuturesPositionEffect,
@@ -26,6 +27,7 @@ use crate::numeric_expr_vm::{
     Scratch as NumericVmScratch, Value as NumericVmValue, ValueType as NumericVmValueType,
 };
 use crate::portfolio::PortfolioState;
+use crate::portfolio_loss::{ClosedPortfolioSession, PortfolioLossConfig, PortfolioLossState};
 use crate::risk_control::{ChinaAShareRiskControl, FidcRiskControlConfig, FidcRiskDecisionAudit};
 use crate::scheduler::{ScheduleRule, ScheduleStage, ScheduleTimeRule, Scheduler};
 use crate::strategy::{
@@ -179,6 +181,22 @@ impl PlatformPortfolioDrawdownController {
     }
 }
 
+fn portfolio_gross_exposure(portfolio: &PortfolioState) -> Result<f64, BacktestError> {
+    let equity = portfolio.total_equity();
+    let market_value: f64 = portfolio.positions().values().map(|position| position.market_value().abs()).sum();
+    if !equity.is_finite() || equity <= 0.0 || !market_value.is_finite() {
+        return Err(BacktestError::Execution("portfolio loss requires finite positive accounting equity".to_owned()));
+    }
+    Ok(market_value / equity)
+}
+
+fn portfolio_loss_decision_at(ctx: &StrategyContext<'_>) -> chrono::DateTime<Utc> {
+    let local = ctx.active_datetime.filter(|value| value.date() == ctx.execution_date)
+        .unwrap_or_else(|| ctx.execution_date.and_hms_opt(9, 30, 0).unwrap());
+    FixedOffset::east_opt(8 * 3600).unwrap().from_local_datetime(&local)
+        .single().unwrap().with_timezone(&Utc)
+}
+
 fn validated_target_scales(scales: &[(String, f64)]) -> Result<Vec<(String, f64)>, BacktestError> {
     if scales.is_empty() {
         return Ok(Vec::new());
@@ -610,6 +628,7 @@ pub struct PlatformExprStrategyConfig {
     pub exposure_expr: String,
     pub position_exposure_schedule: BTreeMap<NaiveDate, f64>,
     pub portfolio_drawdown_control: Option<PlatformPortfolioDrawdownControlConfig>,
+    pub portfolio_loss_control: Option<PortfolioLossConfig>,
     pub stop_loss_expr: String,
     pub take_profit_expr: String,
     pub position_target_rules: Vec<PlatformPositionTargetRule>,
@@ -690,6 +709,7 @@ impl PlatformExprStrategyConfig {
             exposure_expr: "1.0".to_string(),
             position_exposure_schedule: BTreeMap::new(),
             portfolio_drawdown_control: None,
+            portfolio_loss_control: None,
             stop_loss_expr: String::new(),
             take_profit_expr: String::new(),
             position_target_rules: Vec::new(),
@@ -1335,6 +1355,8 @@ pub struct PlatformExprStrategy {
     last_target_order: Option<Vec<String>>,
     last_trading_ratio: Option<f64>,
     portfolio_drawdown_controller: Option<PlatformPortfolioDrawdownController>,
+    portfolio_loss_state: Option<PortfolioLossState>,
+    portfolio_loss_opening: Option<(NaiveDate, f64, f64)>,
     pending_highlimit_holdings: BTreeSet<String>,
     pending_full_close_symbols: BTreeSet<String>,
     position_entry_dates: BTreeMap<String, NaiveDate>,
@@ -1433,6 +1455,21 @@ fn completed_session_factor_date(
 }
 
 impl PlatformExprStrategy {
+    pub fn portfolio_loss_state(&self) -> Option<&PortfolioLossState> {
+        self.portfolio_loss_state.as_ref()
+    }
+
+    pub fn restore_portfolio_loss_state(&mut self, state: PortfolioLossState) -> Result<(), BacktestError> {
+        let expected = self.config.portfolio_loss_control.as_ref().ok_or_else(|| BacktestError::Execution(
+            "portfolio loss state supplied for a strategy without that control".to_owned()))?;
+        state.validate(expected).map_err(|error| BacktestError::Execution(error.to_string()))?;
+        if self.portfolio_loss_opening.is_some() {
+            return Err(BacktestError::Execution("cannot restore portfolio loss state during an open session".to_owned()));
+        }
+        self.portfolio_loss_state = Some(state);
+        Ok(())
+    }
+
     fn market_cap_storage_to_strategy_unit(value: f64) -> f64 {
         value
     }
@@ -1729,6 +1766,8 @@ impl PlatformExprStrategy {
             last_target_order: None,
             last_trading_ratio: None,
             portfolio_drawdown_controller,
+            portfolio_loss_state: None,
+            portfolio_loss_opening: None,
             pending_highlimit_holdings: BTreeSet::new(),
             pending_full_close_symbols: BTreeSet::new(),
             position_entry_dates: BTreeMap::new(),
@@ -8485,12 +8524,18 @@ impl PlatformExprStrategy {
         )
         .unwrap_or(strategy_exposure)
         .clamp(0.0, 1.0);
-        let Some(controller) = self.portfolio_drawdown_controller.as_mut() else {
+        let mut exposure = risk_on_exposure;
-            return Ok(risk_on_exposure);
+        if let Some(controller) = self.portfolio_drawdown_controller.as_mut() {
-        };
+            exposure = controller.update(ctx.decision_date, day.total_value, exposure)?.target_exposure;
-        controller
+        }
-            .update(ctx.decision_date, day.total_value, risk_on_exposure)
+        if self.config.portfolio_loss_control.is_some() {
-            .map(|decision| decision.target_exposure.clamp(0.0, 1.0))
+            let state = self.portfolio_loss_state.as_mut().ok_or_else(|| BacktestError::Execution(
+                "portfolio loss state must be initialized or restored before planning".to_owned()))?;
+            let previous = ctx.data.previous_trading_date(ctx.execution_date, 1);
+            exposure = state.decide(ctx.execution_date, previous, portfolio_loss_decision_at(ctx), exposure)
+                .map_err(|error| BacktestError::Execution(error.to_string()))?.target_exposure;
+        }
+        Ok(exposure.clamp(0.0, 1.0))
     }
 
     fn market_cap_band(
@@ -12144,6 +12189,59 @@ impl Strategy for PlatformExprStrategy {
         self.config.strategy_name.as_str()
     }
 
+    fn before_trading(&mut self, ctx: &StrategyContext<'_>) -> Result<(), BacktestError> {
+        let Some(config) = self.config.portfolio_loss_control.clone() else { return Ok(()); };
+        if ctx.futures_account.is_some() {
+            return Err(BacktestError::Execution("portfolio loss control currently requires equity-only accounting".to_owned()));
+        }
+        if self.portfolio_loss_state.is_none() {
+            self.portfolio_loss_state = Some(PortfolioLossState::new(config, ctx.execution_date)
+                .map_err(|error| BacktestError::Execution(error.to_string()))?);
+        }
+        if let Some((date, _, _)) = self.portfolio_loss_opening {
+            if date == ctx.execution_date { return Ok(()); }
+            return Err(BacktestError::Execution("portfolio loss previous session was not finalized".to_owned()));
+        }
+        let state = self.portfolio_loss_state.as_ref().unwrap();
+        let start_nav = state.last_session().map(|row| row.end_unit_nav).unwrap_or_else(|| ctx.portfolio.unit_net_value());
+        let gross = portfolio_gross_exposure(ctx.portfolio)?;
+        self.portfolio_loss_opening = Some((ctx.execution_date, start_nav, gross));
+        // Advance the daily risk clock even when the selection schedule is not
+        // due. The actual current exposure budget is applied during planning.
+        self.portfolio_loss_state.as_mut().unwrap().decide(ctx.execution_date,
+            ctx.data.previous_trading_date(ctx.execution_date, 1), portfolio_loss_decision_at(ctx), 1.0)
+            .map_err(|error| BacktestError::Execution(error.to_string()))?;
+        Ok(())
+    }
+
+    fn on_process_event(&mut self, ctx: &StrategyContext<'_>, event: &ProcessEvent) -> Result<(), BacktestError> {
+        if self.config.portfolio_loss_control.is_none() || event.kind != ProcessEventKind::PostSettlement { return Ok(()); }
+        let Some((date, start_nav, start_gross)) = self.portfolio_loss_opening else {
+            return Err(BacktestError::Execution("portfolio loss settlement has no opening accounting snapshot".to_owned()));
+        };
+        if date != ctx.execution_date {
+            return Err(BacktestError::Execution("portfolio loss settlement date differs from opening snapshot".to_owned()));
+        }
+        let end_nav = ctx.portfolio.unit_net_value();
+        let end_gross = portfolio_gross_exposure(ctx.portfolio)?;
+        let state = self.portfolio_loss_state.as_mut().unwrap();
+        let previous = state.last_session().map(|row| row.date);
+        let mut hash = Sha256::new();
+        hash.update(b"fidc.engine-finalized-portfolio-session/v1\0");
+        hash.update(self.config.strategy_name.as_bytes());
+        hash.update(date.to_string().as_bytes());
+        for value in [start_nav, end_nav, start_gross, end_gross] { hash.update(value.to_bits().to_le_bytes()); }
+        state.observe(ClosedPortfolioSession {
+            date, previous_session_date: previous,
+            available_at: date.and_hms_opt(7, 30, 0).unwrap().and_utc(),
+            start_unit_nav: start_nav, end_unit_nav: end_nav,
+            start_gross_exposure: start_gross, end_gross_exposure: end_gross,
+            source_sha256: format!("{:x}", hash.finalize()),
+        }).map_err(|error| BacktestError::Execution(error.to_string()))?;
+        self.portfolio_loss_opening = None;
+        Ok(())
+    }
+
     fn initial_subscriptions(&self) -> BTreeSet<String> {
         self.config.initial_subscriptions.clone()
     }
@@ -14006,6 +14104,10 @@ impl PlatformExprStrategy {
         {
             diagnostics.push(diagnostic);
         }
+        if let Some(decision) = self.portfolio_loss_state.as_ref().and_then(PortfolioLossState::last_decision) {
+            diagnostics.push(format!("portfolio_loss_control {}", serde_json::to_string(decision)
+                .map_err(|error| BacktestError::Execution(error.to_string()))?));
+        }
 
         let notes = vec![
             format!("stock_list={}", stock_list.len()),
@@ -14535,6 +14637,91 @@ mod tests {
         .expect("single-symbol platform dataset")
     }
 
+    #[test]
+    fn portfolio_loss_observes_finalized_nav_after_fees_and_cash_flows() {
+        use std::sync::Mutex;
+        use chrono::Duration;
+        use crate::{BacktestConfig, BacktestEngine, BacktestError, BrokerSimulator,
+            ChinaAShareCostModel, ChinaEquityRuleHooks, ClosedPortfolioSession,
+            PortfolioLossConfig, PriceField, StrategyDecision};
+
+        struct Capture {
+            inner: PlatformExprStrategy,
+            first: NaiveDate,
+            rows: Arc<Mutex<Vec<(ClosedPortfolioSession, crate::portfolio_loss::PortfolioLossDecision)>>>,
+        }
+        impl Strategy for Capture {
+            fn name(&self) -> &str { "portfolio-loss-lifecycle-test" }
+            fn requires_minute_callbacks(&self) -> bool { false }
+            fn before_trading(&mut self, ctx: &StrategyContext<'_>) -> Result<(), BacktestError> {
+                self.inner.before_trading(ctx)
+            }
+            fn on_day(&mut self, ctx: &StrategyContext<'_>) -> Result<StrategyDecision, BacktestError> {
+                let mut decision = self.inner.on_day(ctx)?;
+                if ctx.execution_date == self.first {
+                    decision.order_intents.push(OrderIntent::SetManagementFeeRate { rate: 0.001, reason: "fee accounting test".to_owned() });
+                }
+                if ctx.execution_date == self.first + Duration::days(5) {
+                    decision.order_intents.push(OrderIntent::DepositWithdraw { amount: 10_000.0, receiving_days: 0, reason: "unit NAV flow test".to_owned() });
+                }
+                Ok(decision)
+            }
+            fn on_process_event(&mut self, ctx: &StrategyContext<'_>, event: &ProcessEvent) -> Result<(), BacktestError> {
+                self.inner.on_process_event(ctx, event)?;
+                if event.kind == ProcessEventKind::PostSettlement {
+                    let state = self.inner.portfolio_loss_state().unwrap();
+                    self.rows.lock().unwrap().push((state.last_session().unwrap().clone(), state.last_decision().unwrap().clone()));
+                }
+                Ok(())
+            }
+        }
+        let first = d(2023, 1, 3);
+        let dates = (0..25).map(|day| first + Duration::days(day)).collect::<Vec<_>>();
+        let mut parts = single_symbol_platform_data(&dates, "000001.SZ").snapshot_components();
+        for (index, row) in parts.market.iter_mut().enumerate() {
+            let price = (1000.0 * 0.99_f64.powi(index as i32)).round() / 100.0;
+            row.day_open = price; row.open = price; row.high = price; row.low = price;
+            row.close = price; row.last_price = price; row.bid1 = price; row.ask1 = price;
+            row.prev_close = price / 0.99; row.upper_limit = price * 1.1; row.lower_limit = price * 0.9;
+        }
+        let data = DataSet::from_components(parts.instruments, parts.market, parts.factors, parts.candidates, parts.benchmarks).unwrap();
+        let mut config = PlatformExprStrategyConfig::generic();
+        config.universe_include = Some(BTreeSet::from(["000001.SZ".to_owned()]));
+        config.signal_symbol = "000001.SZ".to_owned();
+        config.benchmark_symbol = "000852.SH".to_owned();
+        config.stock_filter_expr = "true".to_owned(); config.rank_expr = "1.0".to_owned();
+        config.selection_limit_expr = "1".to_owned(); config.max_positions = 1;
+        config.market_cap_lower_expr = "0.0".to_owned(); config.market_cap_upper_expr = "1000.0".to_owned();
+        config.exposure_expr = "0.9".to_owned(); config.refresh_rate = 1; config.refresh_rate_expr = "1".to_owned();
+        config.rebalance_existing_positions = true;
+        config.portfolio_loss_control = Some(PortfolioLossConfig { lookback: 10, loss_trigger: 0.05, floor_exposure: 0.2, cooldown_trading_days: 3 });
+        let rows = Arc::new(Mutex::new(Vec::new()));
+        let strategy = Capture { inner: PlatformExprStrategy::new(config), first, rows: Arc::clone(&rows) };
+        let broker = BrokerSimulator::new(ChinaAShareCostModel::default(), ChinaEquityRuleHooks)
+            .with_matching_type(MatchingType::CurrentBarClose);
+        let mut engine = BacktestEngine::new(data, strategy, broker, BacktestConfig {
+            initial_cash: 10_000.0, benchmark_code: "000852.SH".to_owned(), start_date: Some(first),
+            end_date: dates.last().copied(), decision_lag_trading_days: 0, execution_price_field: PriceField::Close,
+        });
+        let result = engine.run().unwrap();
+        let records = rows.lock().unwrap();
+        assert_eq!(records.len(), dates.len());
+        assert!(records.iter().any(|(_, decision)| decision.newly_triggered), "risk sessions={:?}",
+            records.iter().map(|(session, decision)| (session.date, session.start_unit_nav, session.end_unit_nav,
+                session.start_gross_exposure, session.end_gross_exposure, decision.trailing_unit_return, decision.target_exposure)).collect::<Vec<_>>());
+        assert!(result.fills.len() > 1, "fills={} orders={:?} diagnostics={:?}", result.fills.len(),
+            result.order_events.iter().take(4).collect::<Vec<_>>(),
+            result.equity_curve.iter().take(3).map(|row| &row.diagnostics).collect::<Vec<_>>());
+        assert_eq!(result.equity_curve[5].external_cash_flow, 10_000.0);
+        for ((session, decision), equity) in records.iter().zip(&result.equity_curve) {
+            assert_eq!(session.date, equity.date);
+            assert_eq!(session.end_unit_nav.to_bits(), equity.unit_nav.to_bits());
+            assert!(decision.observed_through.is_none_or(|date| date < session.date));
+            if decision.observation_count < 10 { assert!(!decision.threshold_breached); }
+        }
+        assert!(result.equity_curve[5].unit_nav < result.equity_curve[4].unit_nav);
+    }
+
     #[test]
     fn stock_state_cache_resets_before_reusing_compact_keys_on_another_date() {
         let dates = [d(2025, 1, 2), d(2025, 1, 3)];

crates/fidc-core/src/platform_strategy_spec.rs

@@ -3,6 +3,7 @@ use std::collections::{BTreeMap, BTreeSet, HashSet};
 use chrono::{NaiveDate, NaiveTime};
 use serde::{Deserialize, Serialize};
 use serde_json::Value;
+use crate::portfolio_loss::PortfolioLossConfig;
 
 use crate::{
     DynamicSlippageConfig, MatchingType, PlatformAccountActionKind, PlatformExplicitActionStage,
@@ -915,6 +916,8 @@ pub struct StrategyExpressionRiskConfig {
     #[serde(default)]
     pub portfolio_drawdown_control: Option<StrategyPortfolioDrawdownControlConfig>,
     #[serde(default)]
+    pub portfolio_loss_control: Option<StrategyPortfolioLossControlConfig>,
+    #[serde(default)]
     pub stop_loss_expr: Option<String>,
     #[serde(default)]
     pub take_profit_expr: Option<String>,
@@ -963,6 +966,16 @@ pub struct StrategyPortfolioDrawdownControlConfig {
     pub cooldown_trading_days: Option<usize>,
 }
 
+#[derive(Debug, Clone, Default, Deserialize, Serialize)]
+#[serde(rename_all = "camelCase", deny_unknown_fields)]
+pub struct StrategyPortfolioLossControlConfig {
+    pub enabled: Option<bool>,
+    pub lookback: Option<usize>,
+    pub loss_trigger: Option<f64>,
+    pub floor_exposure: Option<f64>,
+    pub cooldown_trading_days: Option<usize>,
+}
+
 #[derive(Debug, Clone, Default, Deserialize, Serialize)]
 #[serde(rename_all = "camelCase")]
 pub struct StrategyExpressionOrderingConfig {
@@ -2176,6 +2189,18 @@ pub fn platform_expr_config_from_spec(
                     ));
                 }
             }
+            if let Some(control) = risk.portfolio_loss_control.as_ref()
+                && control.enabled.unwrap_or(true)
+            {
+                let parsed = PortfolioLossConfig {
+                    lookback: control.lookback.ok_or("portfolioLossControl.lookback is required")?,
+                    loss_trigger: control.loss_trigger.ok_or("portfolioLossControl.lossTrigger is required")?,
+                    floor_exposure: control.floor_exposure.ok_or("portfolioLossControl.floorExposure is required")?,
+                    cooldown_trading_days: control.cooldown_trading_days.ok_or("portfolioLossControl.cooldownTradingDays is required")?,
+                };
+                parsed.validate().map_err(|error| error.to_string())?;
+                cfg.portfolio_loss_control = Some(parsed);
+            }
             if let Some(control) = risk.portfolio_drawdown_control.as_ref()
                 && control.enabled.unwrap_or(true)
             {
@@ -4564,6 +4589,27 @@ mod tests {
         assert_eq!(control.cooldown_trading_days, 30);
     }
 
+    #[test]
+    fn portfolio_loss_contract_is_explicit_and_validated() {
+        let spec = serde_json::json!({"runtimeExpressions":{"risk":{"portfolioLossControl":{
+            "enabled":true,"lookback":20,"lossTrigger":0.05,"floorExposure":0.2,"cooldownTradingDays":10
+        }}}});
+        let cfg = platform_expr_config_from_value("", "", &spec).unwrap();
+        assert_eq!(cfg.portfolio_loss_control.unwrap(), PortfolioLossConfig {
+            lookback:20, loss_trigger:0.05, floor_exposure:0.2, cooldown_trading_days:10,
+        });
+        for (field, value) in [("lookback", serde_json::json!(0)),
+            ("lossTrigger", serde_json::json!(0.01)), ("floorExposure", serde_json::json!(1.1)),
+            ("cooldownTradingDays", serde_json::json!(0))] {
+            let mut invalid = spec.clone();
+            invalid["runtimeExpressions"]["risk"]["portfolioLossControl"][field] = value;
+            assert!(platform_expr_config_from_value("", "", &invalid).is_err());
+        }
+        let mut missing = spec.clone();
+        missing["runtimeExpressions"]["risk"]["portfolioLossControl"].as_object_mut().unwrap().remove("lossTrigger");
+        assert!(platform_expr_config_from_value("", "", &missing).is_err());
+    }
+
     #[test]
     fn rejects_invalid_portfolio_drawdown_control() {
         let spec = serde_json::json!({

crates/fidc-core/src/portfolio_loss.rs

@@ -0,0 +1,517 @@
+//! Causal portfolio-loss state, independent of market-data and order adapters.
+
+use std::collections::VecDeque;
+
+use chrono::{DateTime, FixedOffset, NaiveDate, Utc};
+use serde::{Deserialize, Serialize};
+use thiserror::Error;
+
+const STATE_SCHEMA: &str = "fidc.portfolio-loss-state/v1";
+const MAX_OBSERVATIONS: usize = 120;
+
+#[derive(Debug, Clone, PartialEq, Serialize, Deserialize)]
+#[serde(rename_all = "camelCase", deny_unknown_fields)]
+pub struct PortfolioLossConfig {
+    pub lookback: usize,
+    pub loss_trigger: f64,
+    pub floor_exposure: f64,
+    pub cooldown_trading_days: usize,
+}
+
+impl PortfolioLossConfig {
+    pub fn validate(&self) -> Result<(), PortfolioLossError> {
+        if !matches!(self.lookback, 10 | 20 | 40 | 60)
+            || !self.loss_trigger.is_finite()
+            || !(0.02..=0.30).contains(&self.loss_trigger)
+            || !self.floor_exposure.is_finite()
+            || !(0.0..=1.0).contains(&self.floor_exposure)
+            || !(1..=120).contains(&self.cooldown_trading_days)
+        {
+            return Err(PortfolioLossError::InvalidConfig);
+        }
+        Ok(())
+    }
+}
+
+/// Finalized portfolio accounting, not a market close used as a proxy for NAV.
+/// Unit NAV must already exclude external deposits and withdrawals.
+#[derive(Debug, Clone, PartialEq, Serialize, Deserialize)]
+#[serde(rename_all = "camelCase", deny_unknown_fields)]
+pub struct ClosedPortfolioSession {
+    pub date: NaiveDate,
+    pub previous_session_date: Option<NaiveDate>,
+    pub available_at: DateTime<Utc>,
+    pub start_unit_nav: f64,
+    pub end_unit_nav: f64,
+    pub start_gross_exposure: f64,
+    pub end_gross_exposure: f64,
+    pub source_sha256: String,
+}
+
+impl ClosedPortfolioSession {
+    fn validate(&self) -> Result<(), PortfolioLossError> {
+        let earliest = self.date.and_hms_opt(7, 30, 0).unwrap().and_utc();
+        if [self.start_unit_nav, self.end_unit_nav]
+            .iter()
+            .any(|value| !value.is_finite() || *value <= 0.0)
+            || [self.start_gross_exposure, self.end_gross_exposure]
+                .iter()
+                .any(|value| !value.is_finite() || *value < 0.0)
+            || self
+                .previous_session_date
+                .is_some_and(|date| date >= self.date)
+            || self.available_at < earliest
+            || self.source_sha256.len() != 64
+            || !self
+                .source_sha256
+                .bytes()
+                .all(|byte| byte.is_ascii_digit() || (b'a'..=b'f').contains(&byte))
+        {
+            return Err(PortfolioLossError::InvalidObservation);
+        }
+        self.unit_return()?;
+        Ok(())
+    }
+
+    fn unit_return(&self) -> Result<Option<f64>, PortfolioLossError> {
+        let gross = self.start_gross_exposure.max(self.end_gross_exposure);
+        if gross <= 1e-12 {
+            return Ok(None);
+        }
+        let value = (self.end_unit_nav / self.start_unit_nav - 1.0) / gross;
+        if !value.is_finite() {
+            return Err(PortfolioLossError::InvalidObservation);
+        }
+        Ok(Some(value))
+    }
+}
+
+#[derive(Debug, Clone, PartialEq, Serialize, Deserialize)]
+#[serde(rename_all = "camelCase", deny_unknown_fields)]
+pub struct PortfolioLossDecision {
+    pub execution_date: NaiveDate,
+    pub observed_through: Option<NaiveDate>,
+    pub observation_count: usize,
+    pub trailing_unit_return: Option<f64>,
+    pub threshold_breached: bool,
+    pub newly_triggered: bool,
+    pub risk_off: bool,
+    pub cooldown_before: usize,
+    pub cooldown_after: usize,
+    pub target_exposure: f64,
+}
+
+#[derive(Debug, Clone, PartialEq, Serialize, Deserialize)]
+#[serde(rename_all = "camelCase", deny_unknown_fields)]
+pub struct PortfolioLossState {
+    schema_version: String,
+    config: PortfolioLossConfig,
+    started_on: NaiveDate,
+    observations: VecDeque<ClosedPortfolioSession>,
+    last_session: Option<ClosedPortfolioSession>,
+    cooldown_remaining: usize,
+    trigger_count: usize,
+    last_decision: Option<PortfolioLossDecision>,
+}
+
+#[derive(Debug, Error, PartialEq, Eq)]
+pub enum PortfolioLossError {
+    #[error("invalid portfolio loss configuration")]
+    InvalidConfig,
+    #[error("invalid finalized portfolio session observation")]
+    InvalidObservation,
+    #[error("portfolio loss state does not match its frozen configuration")]
+    StateMismatch,
+    #[error("portfolio session history is missing, reordered or corrected")]
+    SessionDiscontinuity,
+    #[error("portfolio loss observation is not visible at the decision")]
+    ObservationNotVisible,
+    #[error("portfolio loss decisions must follow trading-session order")]
+    DecisionOrder,
+}
+
+impl PortfolioLossState {
+    pub fn new(
+        config: PortfolioLossConfig,
+        started_on: NaiveDate,
+    ) -> Result<Self, PortfolioLossError> {
+        config.validate()?;
+        Ok(Self {
+            schema_version: STATE_SCHEMA.to_owned(),
+            config,
+            started_on,
+            observations: VecDeque::new(),
+            last_session: None,
+            cooldown_remaining: 0,
+            trigger_count: 0,
+            last_decision: None,
+        })
+    }
+
+    /// Validation is required after deserialization; a JSON hash alone is not
+    /// account/generation authorization, which belongs to the state owner.
+    pub fn validate(&self, expected: &PortfolioLossConfig) -> Result<(), PortfolioLossError> {
+        expected.validate()?;
+        if self.schema_version != STATE_SCHEMA
+            || &self.config != expected
+            || self.observations.len() > MAX_OBSERVATIONS
+            || self.cooldown_remaining >= expected.cooldown_trading_days
+        {
+            return Err(PortfolioLossError::StateMismatch);
+        }
+        let mut previous = None;
+        for item in &self.observations {
+            item.validate()?;
+            if item.date < self.started_on
+                || previous.is_some_and(|date| item.date <= date)
+                || item.unit_return()?.is_none()
+            {
+                return Err(PortfolioLossError::StateMismatch);
+            }
+            previous = Some(item.date);
+        }
+        if let Some(last) = &self.last_session {
+            last.validate()?;
+            if last.date < self.started_on
+                || previous.is_some_and(|date| date > last.date)
+                || (last.unit_return()?.is_some() && self.observations.back() != Some(last))
+            {
+                return Err(PortfolioLossError::StateMismatch);
+            }
+        } else if !self.observations.is_empty() {
+            return Err(PortfolioLossError::StateMismatch);
+        }
+        if let Some(decision) = &self.last_decision {
+            let breached = decision
+                .trailing_unit_return
+                .is_some_and(|value| value <= -expected.loss_trigger);
+            let triggered = decision.cooldown_before == 0 && breached;
+            let after = if decision.cooldown_before > 0 {
+                decision.cooldown_before - 1
+            } else if triggered {
+                expected.cooldown_trading_days - 1
+            } else {
+                0
+            };
+            if decision.execution_date < self.started_on
+                || decision
+                    .observed_through
+                    .is_some_and(|date| date >= decision.execution_date)
+                || !decision.target_exposure.is_finite()
+                || !(0.0..=1.0).contains(&decision.target_exposure)
+                || decision
+                    .trailing_unit_return
+                    .is_some_and(|value| !value.is_finite())
+                || decision.cooldown_after != self.cooldown_remaining
+                || decision.observation_count > MAX_OBSERVATIONS
+                || decision.cooldown_before >= expected.cooldown_trading_days
+                || decision.threshold_breached != breached
+                || decision.newly_triggered != triggered
+                || decision.risk_off != (decision.cooldown_before > 0 || triggered)
+                || decision.cooldown_after != after
+                || decision.trailing_unit_return.is_some()
+                    != (decision.observation_count >= expected.lookback)
+                || self.trigger_count
+                    > (decision.execution_date - self.started_on).num_days() as usize + 1
+            {
+                return Err(PortfolioLossError::StateMismatch);
+            }
+        } else if self.cooldown_remaining != 0 || self.trigger_count != 0 {
+            return Err(PortfolioLossError::StateMismatch);
+        }
+        Ok(())
+    }
+
+    /// Exact duplicate delivery is idempotent. Historical corrections require
+    /// explicit reconciliation instead of changing an already-used window.
+    pub fn observe(&mut self, session: ClosedPortfolioSession) -> Result<bool, PortfolioLossError> {
+        self.validate(&self.config)?;
+        session.validate()?;
+        if self.last_session.as_ref() == Some(&session) {
+            return Ok(false);
+        }
+        let previous_date = self.last_session.as_ref().map(|value| value.date);
+        if session.date < self.started_on
+            || session.previous_session_date != previous_date
+            || previous_date.is_some_and(|date| session.date <= date)
+            || (previous_date.is_none() && session.date != self.started_on)
+            || self
+                .last_session
+                .as_ref()
+                .is_some_and(|last| session.start_unit_nav != last.end_unit_nav)
+        {
+            return Err(PortfolioLossError::SessionDiscontinuity);
+        }
+        if session.unit_return()?.is_some() {
+            self.observations.push_back(session.clone());
+            if self.observations.len() > MAX_OBSERVATIONS {
+                self.observations.pop_front();
+            }
+        }
+        self.last_session = Some(session);
+        Ok(true)
+    }
+
+    pub fn decide(
+        &mut self,
+        execution_date: NaiveDate,
+        previous_completed_session: Option<NaiveDate>,
+        decision_at: DateTime<Utc>,
+        risk_on_exposure: f64,
+    ) -> Result<PortfolioLossDecision, PortfolioLossError> {
+        self.validate(&self.config)?;
+        if !risk_on_exposure.is_finite() || !(0.0..=1.0).contains(&risk_on_exposure) {
+            return Err(PortfolioLossError::InvalidConfig);
+        }
+        if execution_date < self.started_on
+            || previous_completed_session.is_some_and(|date| date >= execution_date)
+            || decision_at
+                .with_timezone(&FixedOffset::east_opt(8 * 3600).unwrap())
+                .date_naive()
+                != execution_date
+            || self
+                .last_decision
+                .as_ref()
+                .is_some_and(|last| execution_date < last.execution_date)
+        {
+            return Err(PortfolioLossError::DecisionOrder);
+        }
+        if let Some(last) = &self.last_session {
+            if last.date >= execution_date || last.available_at > decision_at {
+                return Err(PortfolioLossError::ObservationNotVisible);
+            }
+            if Some(last.date) != previous_completed_session {
+                return Err(PortfolioLossError::SessionDiscontinuity);
+            }
+        } else if execution_date != self.started_on {
+            return Err(PortfolioLossError::SessionDiscontinuity);
+        }
+        if let Some(cached) = self
+            .last_decision
+            .as_mut()
+            .filter(|last| last.execution_date == execution_date)
+        {
+            cached.target_exposure = if cached.risk_off {
+                self.config.floor_exposure.min(risk_on_exposure)
+            } else {
+                risk_on_exposure
+            };
+            return Ok(cached.clone());
+        }
+        let trailing = if self.observations.len() >= self.config.lookback {
+            let start = self.observations.len() - self.config.lookback;
+            let mut growth = 1.0;
+            for item in self.observations.iter().skip(start) {
+                growth *=
+                    (1.0 + item.unit_return()?.expect("nonzero exposure observation")).max(0.0);
+            }
+            let result = growth - 1.0;
+            if !result.is_finite() {
+                return Err(PortfolioLossError::InvalidObservation);
+            }
+            Some(result)
+        } else {
+            None
+        };
+        let breached = trailing.is_some_and(|value| value <= -self.config.loss_trigger);
+        let before = self.cooldown_remaining;
+        let triggered = before == 0 && breached;
+        let risk_off = before > 0 || triggered;
+        let after = if before > 0 {
+            before - 1
+        } else if triggered {
+            self.config.cooldown_trading_days - 1
+        } else {
+            0
+        };
+        let decision = PortfolioLossDecision {
+            execution_date,
+            observed_through: self.last_session.as_ref().map(|value| value.date),
+            observation_count: self.observations.len(),
+            trailing_unit_return: trailing,
+            threshold_breached: breached,
+            newly_triggered: triggered,
+            risk_off,
+            cooldown_before: before,
+            cooldown_after: after,
+            target_exposure: if risk_off {
+                self.config.floor_exposure.min(risk_on_exposure)
+            } else {
+                risk_on_exposure
+            },
+        };
+        self.cooldown_remaining = after;
+        self.trigger_count += usize::from(triggered);
+        self.last_decision = Some(decision.clone());
+        Ok(decision)
+    }
+
+    pub fn last_session(&self) -> Option<&ClosedPortfolioSession> {
+        self.last_session.as_ref()
+    }
+    pub fn last_decision(&self) -> Option<&PortfolioLossDecision> {
+        self.last_decision.as_ref()
+    }
+}
+
+#[cfg(test)]
+mod tests {
+    use super::*;
+    use chrono::{Duration, TimeZone};
+
+    fn date(day: i64) -> NaiveDate {
+        NaiveDate::from_ymd_opt(2023, 1, 3).unwrap() + Duration::days(day)
+    }
+    fn time(day: i64, hour: u32) -> DateTime<Utc> {
+        Utc.from_utc_datetime(&date(day).and_hms_opt(hour, 0, 0).unwrap())
+    }
+    fn config() -> PortfolioLossConfig {
+        PortfolioLossConfig {
+            lookback: 10,
+            loss_trigger: 0.05,
+            floor_exposure: 0.2,
+            cooldown_trading_days: 3,
+        }
+    }
+    fn session(day: i64, start: f64, end: f64, gross: f64) -> ClosedPortfolioSession {
+        ClosedPortfolioSession {
+            date: date(day),
+            previous_session_date: (day > 0).then(|| date(day - 1)),
+            available_at: time(day, 8),
+            start_unit_nav: start,
+            end_unit_nav: end,
+            start_gross_exposure: gross,
+            end_gross_exposure: gross,
+            source_sha256: "a".repeat(64),
+        }
+    }
+
+    #[test]
+    fn restart_is_exact_and_duplicate_decisions_do_not_consume_cooldown() {
+        let mut state = PortfolioLossState::new(config(), date(0)).unwrap();
+        let mut nav = 1.0;
+        for day in 0..10 {
+            let end = nav * 0.994;
+            state.observe(session(day, nav, end, 1.0)).unwrap();
+            nav = end;
+        }
+        let first = state
+            .decide(date(10), Some(date(9)), time(10, 1), 0.9)
+            .unwrap();
+        assert!(first.newly_triggered);
+        assert_eq!(first.cooldown_after, 2);
+        let serialized = serde_json::to_string(&state).unwrap();
+        let mut restored: PortfolioLossState = serde_json::from_str(&serialized).unwrap();
+        restored.validate(&config()).unwrap();
+        assert_eq!(
+            first,
+            restored
+                .decide(date(10), Some(date(9)), time(10, 1), 0.9)
+                .unwrap()
+        );
+        let lowered = restored
+            .decide(date(10), Some(date(9)), time(10, 2), 0.1)
+            .unwrap();
+        assert_eq!(lowered.target_exposure, 0.1);
+        assert_eq!(lowered.cooldown_after, 2);
+        for day in 10..15 {
+            let end = nav * 1.01;
+            let row = session(day, nav, end, 0.2);
+            state.observe(row.clone()).unwrap();
+            restored.observe(row).unwrap();
+            nav = end;
+            assert_eq!(
+                state
+                    .decide(date(day + 1), Some(date(day)), time(day + 1, 1), 0.9)
+                    .unwrap(),
+                restored
+                    .decide(date(day + 1), Some(date(day)), time(day + 1, 1), 0.9)
+                    .unwrap()
+            );
+        }
+    }
+
+    #[test]
+    fn refuses_future_missing_corrected_and_incomplete_accounting() {
+        let mut state = PortfolioLossState::new(config(), date(0)).unwrap();
+        let first = session(0, 1.0, 0.99, 1.0);
+        assert!(state.observe(first.clone()).unwrap());
+        assert!(!state.observe(first.clone()).unwrap());
+        let original = state.clone();
+        let mut changed = first;
+        changed.end_unit_nav = 0.98;
+        assert_eq!(
+            state.observe(changed),
+            Err(PortfolioLossError::SessionDiscontinuity)
+        );
+        assert_eq!(state, original);
+        assert_eq!(
+            state.decide(date(0), None, time(0, 1), 0.9),
+            Err(PortfolioLossError::ObservationNotVisible)
+        );
+        assert_eq!(
+            state.decide(date(2), Some(date(1)), time(2, 1), 0.9),
+            Err(PortfolioLossError::SessionDiscontinuity)
+        );
+        let mut late = PortfolioLossState::new(config(), date(0)).unwrap();
+        let mut delayed = session(0, 1.0, 0.99, 1.0);
+        delayed.available_at = time(2, 1);
+        late.observe(delayed).unwrap();
+        assert_eq!(
+            late.decide(date(1), Some(date(0)), time(1, 1), 0.9),
+            Err(PortfolioLossError::ObservationNotVisible)
+        );
+        let mut invalid = session(1, 0.99, 1.0, 1.0);
+        invalid.end_unit_nav = f64::NAN;
+        assert_eq!(
+            state.observe(invalid),
+            Err(PortfolioLossError::InvalidObservation)
+        );
+    }
+
+    #[test]
+    fn cash_sessions_preserve_continuity_without_inventing_returns() {
+        let mut state = PortfolioLossState::new(config(), date(0)).unwrap();
+        for day in 0..20 {
+            state.observe(session(day, 1.0, 1.0, 0.0)).unwrap();
+        }
+        let decision = state
+            .decide(date(20), Some(date(19)), time(20, 1), 0.9)
+            .unwrap();
+        assert_eq!(decision.observation_count, 0);
+        assert_eq!(decision.trailing_unit_return, None);
+        assert_eq!(decision.target_exposure, 0.9);
+        assert_eq!(state.last_session().unwrap().date, date(19));
+    }
+
+    #[test]
+    fn restored_state_rejects_changed_policy_and_forged_cooldown() {
+        let state = PortfolioLossState::new(config(), date(0)).unwrap();
+        let mut changed = config();
+        changed.floor_exposure = 0.5;
+        assert_eq!(
+            state.validate(&changed),
+            Err(PortfolioLossError::StateMismatch)
+        );
+        let mut forged = state.clone();
+        forged.cooldown_remaining = 1;
+        assert_eq!(
+            forged.validate(&config()),
+            Err(PortfolioLossError::StateMismatch)
+        );
+    }
+
+    #[test]
+    fn nav_serialization_preserves_float_bits() {
+        let mut seed = 0xabcddcba12345678_u64;
+        for _ in 0..2000 {
+            seed ^= seed << 13;
+            seed ^= seed >> 7;
+            seed ^= seed << 17;
+            let value = 0.01 + (seed as f64 / u64::MAX as f64) * 9.99;
+            let serialized = serde_json::to_string(&value).unwrap();
+            let restored: f64 = serde_json::from_str(&serialized).unwrap();
+            assert_eq!(value.to_bits(), restored.to_bits());
+        }
+    }
+}

docs/production-portfolio-risk-contract.md

@@ -0,0 +1,25 @@
+# Production Portfolio Risk Contract
+
+Status: implementation in progress. This document does not admit a strategy to production.
+
+Research breadth/loss rules are not yet production controls: Alpha currently rejects dynamic breadth without full-market PIT input, and the existing Strategy Runtime creates a fresh strategy per request. A single successful request cannot prove stateful drawdown or cooldown behavior.
+
+## Ownership
+
+- Source Lake owns market-only aggregates, with a full-market universe distinct from the trading selection, completed-date visibility, formula/adjustment semantics and source identity. A selected Top40 subset is not a market-breadth input.
+- Engine owns simulated portfolio accounting. Risk observations must be finalized after execution, settlement and fees, not inferred from benchmark returns or recorded before management fees.
+- Trading Platform owns strategy-instance/generation-scoped observations and state in PostgreSQL. Loading and committing state require the execution lease and optimistic version checks. Account/generation/config identity must be checked before runtime planning; a content hash alone is not authorization.
+- Strategy Runtime is a pure calculation boundary: restore verified state, consume closed-session facts, calculate intents and return proposed next state. Never silently initialize an established strategy's state on every HTTP request.
+- AiQuant must calculate its own portfolio observations from its own fills/accounting under the same declared formulas. Historical target weights or researcher-generated risk-off booleans are not production logic.
+
+## Loss Rule
+
+The v1 research rule compounds completed net daily unit returns divided by the maximum of beginning/end gross exposure. A zero-exposure session advances continuity but adds no return observation. Window sizes are valid invested observations, not calendar days. Only sessions before the execution day and available by the decision may be consumed.
+
+The loss trigger, floor and cooldown are explicit. Repeated evaluation within one execution day must not decrement cooldown twice. A reduced current exposure budget still caps the returned target. Corrections, dropped sessions, nonfinite values and wrong configuration are reconciliation errors, not zero-filled history. State is serialized and validated on restore, bounded to 120 observations, and is never shared across accounts or strategies.
+
+With a zero floor, the original invested-observation rule can remain in cash while its loss window stays unchanged. That behavior must not be described as automatic market re-entry; an alternate rearm policy requires a separately frozen semantic version and research validation. Current v13 research floors are positive.
+
+## Remaining Integration
+
+Wire finalized engine events, JSON configuration/capability contracts and runner diagnostics. Add authoritative trading-state storage/restore and fail closed when that state is absent. Add full-market breadth input construction and both-framework consumers. Verify independent daily inputs, state after restart, exact risk decisions, orders/holdings/NAV and real same-bundle backtests before removing production gates. No live orders or production approval are authorized by component tests.