修正入金后的资金流收益指标

crates/fidc-core/src/metrics.rs

@@ -4,7 +4,7 @@ use chrono::{Datelike, NaiveDate};
 use serde::{Deserialize, Serialize};
 
 use crate::engine::DailyEquityPoint;
-use crate::events::FillEvent;
+use crate::events::{AccountEvent, FillEvent};
 use crate::portfolio::HoldingSummary;
 
 const TRADING_DAYS_PER_YEAR: f64 = 252.0;
@@ -56,6 +56,7 @@ pub fn compute_backtest_metrics(
     equity_curve: &[DailyEquityPoint],
     fills: &[FillEvent],
     daily_holdings: &[HoldingSummary],
+    account_events: &[AccountEvent],
     initial_cash: f64,
 ) -> BacktestMetrics {
     let Some(first_point) = equity_curve.first() else {
@@ -81,12 +82,15 @@ pub fn compute_backtest_metrics(
     } else {
         first_point.benchmark_close
     };
-    let mut returns = Vec::with_capacity(equity_curve.len());
-    returns.push(pct_change(initial_cash, first_point.total_equity));
+    let portfolio_nav = flow_neutral_nav_series(equity_curve, account_events, initial_cash);
+    let mut returns = Vec::with_capacity(portfolio_nav.len());
+    if let Some(first_nav) = portfolio_nav.first().copied() {
+        returns.push(pct_change(1.0, first_nav));
+    }
     returns.extend(
-        equity_curve
+        portfolio_nav
             .windows(2)
-            .map(|window| pct_change(window[0].total_equity, window[1].total_equity)),
+            .map(|window| pct_change(window[0], window[1])),
     );
     let mut benchmark_returns = Vec::with_capacity(equity_curve.len());
     benchmark_returns.push(pct_change(benchmark_start, first_point.benchmark_close));
@@ -107,15 +111,11 @@ pub fn compute_backtest_metrics(
         last_point.benchmark_close / benchmark_start
     };
     let benchmark_cumulative_return = benchmark_net_value - 1.0;
-    let total_return = if initial_cash.abs() < f64::EPSILON {
-        0.0
-    } else {
-        (last_point.total_equity / initial_cash) - 1.0
-    };
+    let total_return = portfolio_nav.last().copied().unwrap_or(0.0) - 1.0;
     let excess_cumulative_return = if benchmark_net_value.abs() < f64::EPSILON {
         total_return
     } else {
-        (last_point.total_equity / initial_cash) / benchmark_net_value - 1.0
+        portfolio_nav.last().copied().unwrap_or(0.0) / benchmark_net_value - 1.0
     };
     let excess_return = total_return - benchmark_cumulative_return;
     let annual_return = annualize_return(total_return, trade_days);
@@ -132,10 +132,7 @@ pub fn compute_backtest_metrics(
     let excess_sharpe = annualized_sharpe(&excess_returns, 0.0, TRADING_DAYS_PER_YEAR);
     let (alpha, beta) = alpha_beta(&returns, &benchmark_returns, daily_rf);
 
-    let equity_nav = equity_curve
-        .iter()
-        .map(|point| safe_div(point.total_equity, initial_cash, 1.0))
-        .collect::<Vec<_>>();
+    let equity_nav = portfolio_nav;
     let benchmark_nav_series = equity_curve
         .iter()
         .map(|point| safe_div(point.benchmark_close, benchmark_start, 1.0))
@@ -155,7 +152,7 @@ pub fn compute_backtest_metrics(
     let excess_win_rate = ratio(excess_winning_days, excess_returns.len());
 
     let monthly_portfolio_returns =
-        group_monthly_returns(equity_curve, initial_cash, |point| point.total_equity);
+        group_monthly_returns_from_values(equity_curve, &equity_nav);
     let monthly_benchmark_returns =
         group_monthly_returns(equity_curve, benchmark_start, |point| point.benchmark_close);
     let monthly_excess_returns = monthly_portfolio_returns
@@ -257,7 +254,7 @@ pub fn compute_backtest_metrics(
         average_daily_turnover,
         total_assets: last_point.total_equity,
         cash_balance: last_point.cash,
-        unit_nav: safe_div(last_point.total_equity, initial_cash, 0.0),
+        unit_nav: equity_nav.last().copied().unwrap_or_default(),
         initial_cash,
         excess_win_rate,
         monthly_sharpe,
@@ -384,6 +381,69 @@ fn drawdown_stats(nav: &[f64]) -> (f64, usize) {
     (max_drawdown, max_duration)
 }
 
+fn flow_neutral_nav_series(
+    equity_curve: &[DailyEquityPoint],
+    account_events: &[AccountEvent],
+    initial_cash: f64,
+) -> Vec<f64> {
+    let mut external_flow_by_date = BTreeMap::<NaiveDate, f64>::new();
+    for event in account_events {
+        if !(event.note.starts_with("deposit_withdraw amount=")
+            || event.note.starts_with("deposit_withdraw_settled amount="))
+        {
+            continue;
+        }
+        *external_flow_by_date.entry(event.date).or_default() +=
+            event.cash_after - event.cash_before;
+    }
+
+    let mut units = initial_cash;
+    let mut previous_equity = initial_cash;
+    let mut navs = Vec::with_capacity(equity_curve.len());
+    for point in equity_curve {
+        let unit_nav_before_flow = safe_div(previous_equity, units, 1.0);
+        let external_flow = external_flow_by_date
+            .get(&point.date)
+            .copied()
+            .unwrap_or_default();
+        if external_flow.abs() > f64::EPSILON && unit_nav_before_flow.is_finite() {
+            units += external_flow / unit_nav_before_flow;
+        }
+        let unit_nav = safe_div(point.total_equity, units, 0.0);
+        navs.push(unit_nav);
+        previous_equity = point.total_equity;
+    }
+    navs
+}
+
+fn group_monthly_returns_from_values(
+    equity_curve: &[DailyEquityPoint],
+    values: &[f64],
+) -> Vec<f64> {
+    let mut month_last = BTreeMap::<(i32, u32), f64>::new();
+    let mut month_first = BTreeMap::<(i32, u32), f64>::new();
+    let mut previous_value = 1.0;
+    for (point, value) in equity_curve.iter().zip(values.iter().copied()) {
+        let key = (point.date.year(), point.date.month());
+        month_first.entry(key).or_insert(previous_value);
+        month_last.insert(key, value);
+        previous_value = value;
+    }
+    let mut keys = month_last.keys().copied().collect::<Vec<_>>();
+    keys.sort_unstable();
+    keys.into_iter()
+        .filter_map(|key| {
+            let first = month_first.get(&key).copied().unwrap_or_default();
+            let last = month_last.get(&key).copied().unwrap_or_default();
+            if first.abs() < f64::EPSILON {
+                None
+            } else {
+                Some((last / first) - 1.0)
+            }
+        })
+        .collect()
+}
+
 fn group_monthly_returns<F>(
     equity_curve: &[DailyEquityPoint],
     initial_value: f64,
@@ -499,8 +559,26 @@ mod tests {
             equity_point("2025-01-02", 100.0, 5797.089, 5957.717),
             equity_point("2025-12-31", 120.0, 7595.285, 7597.299),
         ];
-        let metrics = compute_backtest_metrics(&curve, &[], &[], 100.0);
+        let metrics = compute_backtest_metrics(&curve, &[], &[], &[], 100.0);
         let expected = 7595.285 / 5957.717 - 1.0;
         assert!((metrics.benchmark_cumulative_return - expected).abs() < 1e-12);
     }
+
+    #[test]
+    fn external_deposit_does_not_count_as_strategy_return() {
+        let curve = vec![
+            equity_point("2025-01-02", 100.0, 100.0, 100.0),
+            equity_point("2025-01-03", 220.0, 100.0, 100.0),
+        ];
+        let events = vec![AccountEvent {
+            date: NaiveDate::from_ymd_opt(2025, 1, 3).unwrap(),
+            cash_before: 100.0,
+            cash_after: 200.0,
+            total_equity: 200.0,
+            note: "deposit_withdraw amount=100.00 reason=test".to_string(),
+        }];
+        let metrics = compute_backtest_metrics(&curve, &[], &[], &events, 100.0);
+        assert!((metrics.total_return - 0.1).abs() < 1e-12);
+        assert!((metrics.unit_nav - 1.1).abs() < 1e-12);
+    }
 }