合并组合亏损控制器与因子内核依赖
This commit is contained in:
boris
@@ -13,5 +13,6 @@ rayon.workspace = true
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rhai.workspace = true
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serde.workspace = true
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serde_json.workspace = true
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sha2.workspace = true
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thiserror.workspace = true
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ta-lib = { git = "https://github.com/TA-Lib/ta-lib.git", rev = "dd5a90259a3f9e04e2da9f38bf0719a841b40108" }
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@@ -17,6 +17,7 @@ pub mod platform_expr_strategy;
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pub mod platform_runtime_schema;
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pub mod platform_strategy_spec;
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pub mod portfolio;
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pub mod portfolio_loss;
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pub mod risk_control;
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pub mod rules;
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pub mod scheduler;
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@@ -86,6 +87,7 @@ pub use platform_strategy_spec::{
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platform_expr_config_from_value, validate_strategy_risk_policy_fields,
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};
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pub use portfolio::{CashReceivable, HoldingSummary, PendingCashFlow, PortfolioState, Position};
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pub use portfolio_loss::{ClosedPortfolioSession, PortfolioLossConfig, PortfolioLossDecision, PortfolioLossError, PortfolioLossState};
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pub use risk_control::{
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ChinaAShareRiskControl, FidcRiskControlConfig, FidcRiskDecisionAudit, RiskCheckScope,
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StaticRiskRuleConfig, TradingConstraintConfig,
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@@ -3,7 +3,8 @@ use std::collections::{BTreeMap, BTreeSet};
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use std::sync::Arc;
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use ahash::{AHashMap, AHashSet};
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use chrono::{Datelike, Duration, NaiveDate, NaiveDateTime, NaiveTime, Timelike};
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use chrono::{Datelike, Duration, FixedOffset, NaiveDate, NaiveDateTime, NaiveTime, TimeZone, Timelike, Utc};
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use sha2::{Digest, Sha256};
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use rhai::{AST, Dynamic, Engine, ImmutableString, Map, Scope};
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use crate::broker::{MatchingType, RebalanceCashMode, SlippageModel};
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@@ -16,7 +17,7 @@ use crate::data::{
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decision_market_cap_bn,
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};
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use crate::engine::BacktestError;
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use crate::events::OrderSide;
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use crate::events::{OrderSide, ProcessEvent, ProcessEventKind};
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use crate::fixed_point::FixedMoney;
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use crate::futures::{
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FuturesContractSpec, FuturesDirection, FuturesOrderIntent, FuturesPositionEffect,
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@@ -26,6 +27,7 @@ use crate::numeric_expr_vm::{
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Scratch as NumericVmScratch, Value as NumericVmValue, ValueType as NumericVmValueType,
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};
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use crate::portfolio::PortfolioState;
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use crate::portfolio_loss::{ClosedPortfolioSession, PortfolioLossConfig, PortfolioLossState};
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use crate::risk_control::{ChinaAShareRiskControl, FidcRiskControlConfig, FidcRiskDecisionAudit};
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use crate::scheduler::{ScheduleRule, ScheduleStage, ScheduleTimeRule, Scheduler};
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use crate::strategy::{
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@@ -179,6 +181,22 @@ impl PlatformPortfolioDrawdownController {
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}
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}
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fn portfolio_gross_exposure(portfolio: &PortfolioState) -> Result<f64, BacktestError> {
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let equity = portfolio.total_equity();
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let market_value: f64 = portfolio.positions().values().map(|position| position.market_value().abs()).sum();
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if !equity.is_finite() || equity <= 0.0 || !market_value.is_finite() {
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return Err(BacktestError::Execution("portfolio loss requires finite positive accounting equity".to_owned()));
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}
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Ok(market_value / equity)
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}
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fn portfolio_loss_decision_at(ctx: &StrategyContext<'_>) -> chrono::DateTime<Utc> {
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let local = ctx.active_datetime.filter(|value| value.date() == ctx.execution_date)
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.unwrap_or_else(|| ctx.execution_date.and_hms_opt(9, 30, 0).unwrap());
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FixedOffset::east_opt(8 * 3600).unwrap().from_local_datetime(&local)
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.single().unwrap().with_timezone(&Utc)
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}
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fn validated_target_scales(scales: &[(String, f64)]) -> Result<Vec<(String, f64)>, BacktestError> {
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if scales.is_empty() {
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return Ok(Vec::new());
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@@ -610,6 +628,7 @@ pub struct PlatformExprStrategyConfig {
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pub exposure_expr: String,
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pub position_exposure_schedule: BTreeMap<NaiveDate, f64>,
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pub portfolio_drawdown_control: Option<PlatformPortfolioDrawdownControlConfig>,
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pub portfolio_loss_control: Option<PortfolioLossConfig>,
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pub stop_loss_expr: String,
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pub take_profit_expr: String,
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pub position_target_rules: Vec<PlatformPositionTargetRule>,
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@@ -690,6 +709,7 @@ impl PlatformExprStrategyConfig {
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exposure_expr: "1.0".to_string(),
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position_exposure_schedule: BTreeMap::new(),
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portfolio_drawdown_control: None,
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portfolio_loss_control: None,
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stop_loss_expr: String::new(),
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take_profit_expr: String::new(),
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position_target_rules: Vec::new(),
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@@ -1335,6 +1355,8 @@ pub struct PlatformExprStrategy {
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last_target_order: Option<Vec<String>>,
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last_trading_ratio: Option<f64>,
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portfolio_drawdown_controller: Option<PlatformPortfolioDrawdownController>,
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portfolio_loss_state: Option<PortfolioLossState>,
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portfolio_loss_opening: Option<(NaiveDate, f64, f64)>,
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pending_highlimit_holdings: BTreeSet<String>,
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pending_full_close_symbols: BTreeSet<String>,
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position_entry_dates: BTreeMap<String, NaiveDate>,
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@@ -1433,6 +1455,21 @@ fn completed_session_factor_date(
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}
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impl PlatformExprStrategy {
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pub fn portfolio_loss_state(&self) -> Option<&PortfolioLossState> {
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self.portfolio_loss_state.as_ref()
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}
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pub fn restore_portfolio_loss_state(&mut self, state: PortfolioLossState) -> Result<(), BacktestError> {
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let expected = self.config.portfolio_loss_control.as_ref().ok_or_else(|| BacktestError::Execution(
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"portfolio loss state supplied for a strategy without that control".to_owned()))?;
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state.validate(expected).map_err(|error| BacktestError::Execution(error.to_string()))?;
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if self.portfolio_loss_opening.is_some() {
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return Err(BacktestError::Execution("cannot restore portfolio loss state during an open session".to_owned()));
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}
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self.portfolio_loss_state = Some(state);
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Ok(())
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}
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fn market_cap_storage_to_strategy_unit(value: f64) -> f64 {
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value
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}
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@@ -1729,6 +1766,8 @@ impl PlatformExprStrategy {
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last_target_order: None,
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last_trading_ratio: None,
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portfolio_drawdown_controller,
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portfolio_loss_state: None,
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portfolio_loss_opening: None,
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pending_highlimit_holdings: BTreeSet::new(),
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pending_full_close_symbols: BTreeSet::new(),
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position_entry_dates: BTreeMap::new(),
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@@ -8485,12 +8524,18 @@ impl PlatformExprStrategy {
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)
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.unwrap_or(strategy_exposure)
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.clamp(0.0, 1.0);
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let Some(controller) = self.portfolio_drawdown_controller.as_mut() else {
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return Ok(risk_on_exposure);
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};
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controller
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.update(ctx.decision_date, day.total_value, risk_on_exposure)
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.map(|decision| decision.target_exposure.clamp(0.0, 1.0))
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let mut exposure = risk_on_exposure;
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if let Some(controller) = self.portfolio_drawdown_controller.as_mut() {
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exposure = controller.update(ctx.decision_date, day.total_value, exposure)?.target_exposure;
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}
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if self.config.portfolio_loss_control.is_some() {
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let state = self.portfolio_loss_state.as_mut().ok_or_else(|| BacktestError::Execution(
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"portfolio loss state must be initialized or restored before planning".to_owned()))?;
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let previous = ctx.data.previous_trading_date(ctx.execution_date, 1);
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exposure = state.decide(ctx.execution_date, previous, portfolio_loss_decision_at(ctx), exposure)
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.map_err(|error| BacktestError::Execution(error.to_string()))?.target_exposure;
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}
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Ok(exposure.clamp(0.0, 1.0))
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}
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fn market_cap_band(
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@@ -12144,6 +12189,59 @@ impl Strategy for PlatformExprStrategy {
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self.config.strategy_name.as_str()
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}
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fn before_trading(&mut self, ctx: &StrategyContext<'_>) -> Result<(), BacktestError> {
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let Some(config) = self.config.portfolio_loss_control.clone() else { return Ok(()); };
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if ctx.futures_account.is_some() {
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return Err(BacktestError::Execution("portfolio loss control currently requires equity-only accounting".to_owned()));
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}
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if self.portfolio_loss_state.is_none() {
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self.portfolio_loss_state = Some(PortfolioLossState::new(config, ctx.execution_date)
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.map_err(|error| BacktestError::Execution(error.to_string()))?);
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}
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if let Some((date, _, _)) = self.portfolio_loss_opening {
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if date == ctx.execution_date { return Ok(()); }
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return Err(BacktestError::Execution("portfolio loss previous session was not finalized".to_owned()));
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}
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let state = self.portfolio_loss_state.as_ref().unwrap();
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let start_nav = state.last_session().map(|row| row.end_unit_nav).unwrap_or_else(|| ctx.portfolio.unit_net_value());
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let gross = portfolio_gross_exposure(ctx.portfolio)?;
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self.portfolio_loss_opening = Some((ctx.execution_date, start_nav, gross));
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// Advance the daily risk clock even when the selection schedule is not
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// due. The actual current exposure budget is applied during planning.
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self.portfolio_loss_state.as_mut().unwrap().decide(ctx.execution_date,
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ctx.data.previous_trading_date(ctx.execution_date, 1), portfolio_loss_decision_at(ctx), 1.0)
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.map_err(|error| BacktestError::Execution(error.to_string()))?;
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Ok(())
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}
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fn on_process_event(&mut self, ctx: &StrategyContext<'_>, event: &ProcessEvent) -> Result<(), BacktestError> {
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if self.config.portfolio_loss_control.is_none() || event.kind != ProcessEventKind::PostSettlement { return Ok(()); }
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let Some((date, start_nav, start_gross)) = self.portfolio_loss_opening else {
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return Err(BacktestError::Execution("portfolio loss settlement has no opening accounting snapshot".to_owned()));
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};
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if date != ctx.execution_date {
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return Err(BacktestError::Execution("portfolio loss settlement date differs from opening snapshot".to_owned()));
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}
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let end_nav = ctx.portfolio.unit_net_value();
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let end_gross = portfolio_gross_exposure(ctx.portfolio)?;
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let state = self.portfolio_loss_state.as_mut().unwrap();
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let previous = state.last_session().map(|row| row.date);
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let mut hash = Sha256::new();
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hash.update(b"fidc.engine-finalized-portfolio-session/v1\0");
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hash.update(self.config.strategy_name.as_bytes());
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hash.update(date.to_string().as_bytes());
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for value in [start_nav, end_nav, start_gross, end_gross] { hash.update(value.to_bits().to_le_bytes()); }
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state.observe(ClosedPortfolioSession {
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date, previous_session_date: previous,
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available_at: date.and_hms_opt(7, 30, 0).unwrap().and_utc(),
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start_unit_nav: start_nav, end_unit_nav: end_nav,
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start_gross_exposure: start_gross, end_gross_exposure: end_gross,
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source_sha256: format!("{:x}", hash.finalize()),
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}).map_err(|error| BacktestError::Execution(error.to_string()))?;
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self.portfolio_loss_opening = None;
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Ok(())
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}
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fn initial_subscriptions(&self) -> BTreeSet<String> {
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self.config.initial_subscriptions.clone()
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}
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@@ -14006,6 +14104,10 @@ impl PlatformExprStrategy {
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{
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diagnostics.push(diagnostic);
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}
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if let Some(decision) = self.portfolio_loss_state.as_ref().and_then(PortfolioLossState::last_decision) {
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diagnostics.push(format!("portfolio_loss_control {}", serde_json::to_string(decision)
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.map_err(|error| BacktestError::Execution(error.to_string()))?));
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}
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let notes = vec![
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format!("stock_list={}", stock_list.len()),
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@@ -14535,6 +14637,91 @@ mod tests {
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.expect("single-symbol platform dataset")
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}
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#[test]
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fn portfolio_loss_observes_finalized_nav_after_fees_and_cash_flows() {
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use std::sync::Mutex;
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use chrono::Duration;
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use crate::{BacktestConfig, BacktestEngine, BacktestError, BrokerSimulator,
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ChinaAShareCostModel, ChinaEquityRuleHooks, ClosedPortfolioSession,
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PortfolioLossConfig, PriceField, StrategyDecision};
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struct Capture {
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inner: PlatformExprStrategy,
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first: NaiveDate,
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rows: Arc<Mutex<Vec<(ClosedPortfolioSession, crate::portfolio_loss::PortfolioLossDecision)>>>,
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}
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impl Strategy for Capture {
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fn name(&self) -> &str { "portfolio-loss-lifecycle-test" }
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fn requires_minute_callbacks(&self) -> bool { false }
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fn before_trading(&mut self, ctx: &StrategyContext<'_>) -> Result<(), BacktestError> {
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self.inner.before_trading(ctx)
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}
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fn on_day(&mut self, ctx: &StrategyContext<'_>) -> Result<StrategyDecision, BacktestError> {
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let mut decision = self.inner.on_day(ctx)?;
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if ctx.execution_date == self.first {
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decision.order_intents.push(OrderIntent::SetManagementFeeRate { rate: 0.001, reason: "fee accounting test".to_owned() });
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}
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if ctx.execution_date == self.first + Duration::days(5) {
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decision.order_intents.push(OrderIntent::DepositWithdraw { amount: 10_000.0, receiving_days: 0, reason: "unit NAV flow test".to_owned() });
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}
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Ok(decision)
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}
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fn on_process_event(&mut self, ctx: &StrategyContext<'_>, event: &ProcessEvent) -> Result<(), BacktestError> {
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self.inner.on_process_event(ctx, event)?;
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if event.kind == ProcessEventKind::PostSettlement {
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let state = self.inner.portfolio_loss_state().unwrap();
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self.rows.lock().unwrap().push((state.last_session().unwrap().clone(), state.last_decision().unwrap().clone()));
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}
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Ok(())
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}
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}
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let first = d(2023, 1, 3);
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let dates = (0..25).map(|day| first + Duration::days(day)).collect::<Vec<_>>();
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let mut parts = single_symbol_platform_data(&dates, "000001.SZ").snapshot_components();
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for (index, row) in parts.market.iter_mut().enumerate() {
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let price = (1000.0 * 0.99_f64.powi(index as i32)).round() / 100.0;
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row.day_open = price; row.open = price; row.high = price; row.low = price;
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row.close = price; row.last_price = price; row.bid1 = price; row.ask1 = price;
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row.prev_close = price / 0.99; row.upper_limit = price * 1.1; row.lower_limit = price * 0.9;
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}
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let data = DataSet::from_components(parts.instruments, parts.market, parts.factors, parts.candidates, parts.benchmarks).unwrap();
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let mut config = PlatformExprStrategyConfig::generic();
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config.universe_include = Some(BTreeSet::from(["000001.SZ".to_owned()]));
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config.signal_symbol = "000001.SZ".to_owned();
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config.benchmark_symbol = "000852.SH".to_owned();
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config.stock_filter_expr = "true".to_owned(); config.rank_expr = "1.0".to_owned();
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config.selection_limit_expr = "1".to_owned(); config.max_positions = 1;
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config.market_cap_lower_expr = "0.0".to_owned(); config.market_cap_upper_expr = "1000.0".to_owned();
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config.exposure_expr = "0.9".to_owned(); config.refresh_rate = 1; config.refresh_rate_expr = "1".to_owned();
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config.rebalance_existing_positions = true;
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config.portfolio_loss_control = Some(PortfolioLossConfig { lookback: 10, loss_trigger: 0.05, floor_exposure: 0.2, cooldown_trading_days: 3 });
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let rows = Arc::new(Mutex::new(Vec::new()));
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let strategy = Capture { inner: PlatformExprStrategy::new(config), first, rows: Arc::clone(&rows) };
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let broker = BrokerSimulator::new(ChinaAShareCostModel::default(), ChinaEquityRuleHooks)
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.with_matching_type(MatchingType::CurrentBarClose);
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let mut engine = BacktestEngine::new(data, strategy, broker, BacktestConfig {
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initial_cash: 10_000.0, benchmark_code: "000852.SH".to_owned(), start_date: Some(first),
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end_date: dates.last().copied(), decision_lag_trading_days: 0, execution_price_field: PriceField::Close,
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});
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let result = engine.run().unwrap();
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let records = rows.lock().unwrap();
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assert_eq!(records.len(), dates.len());
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assert!(records.iter().any(|(_, decision)| decision.newly_triggered), "risk sessions={:?}",
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records.iter().map(|(session, decision)| (session.date, session.start_unit_nav, session.end_unit_nav,
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session.start_gross_exposure, session.end_gross_exposure, decision.trailing_unit_return, decision.target_exposure)).collect::<Vec<_>>());
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assert!(result.fills.len() > 1, "fills={} orders={:?} diagnostics={:?}", result.fills.len(),
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result.order_events.iter().take(4).collect::<Vec<_>>(),
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result.equity_curve.iter().take(3).map(|row| &row.diagnostics).collect::<Vec<_>>());
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assert_eq!(result.equity_curve[5].external_cash_flow, 10_000.0);
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for ((session, decision), equity) in records.iter().zip(&result.equity_curve) {
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assert_eq!(session.date, equity.date);
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assert_eq!(session.end_unit_nav.to_bits(), equity.unit_nav.to_bits());
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assert!(decision.observed_through.is_none_or(|date| date < session.date));
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if decision.observation_count < 10 { assert!(!decision.threshold_breached); }
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}
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assert!(result.equity_curve[5].unit_nav < result.equity_curve[4].unit_nav);
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}
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#[test]
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fn stock_state_cache_resets_before_reusing_compact_keys_on_another_date() {
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let dates = [d(2025, 1, 2), d(2025, 1, 3)];
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@@ -3,6 +3,7 @@ use std::collections::{BTreeMap, BTreeSet, HashSet};
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use chrono::{NaiveDate, NaiveTime};
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use serde::{Deserialize, Serialize};
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use serde_json::Value;
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use crate::portfolio_loss::PortfolioLossConfig;
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use crate::{
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DynamicSlippageConfig, MatchingType, PlatformAccountActionKind, PlatformExplicitActionStage,
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@@ -915,6 +916,8 @@ pub struct StrategyExpressionRiskConfig {
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#[serde(default)]
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pub portfolio_drawdown_control: Option<StrategyPortfolioDrawdownControlConfig>,
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#[serde(default)]
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pub portfolio_loss_control: Option<StrategyPortfolioLossControlConfig>,
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#[serde(default)]
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pub stop_loss_expr: Option<String>,
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#[serde(default)]
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pub take_profit_expr: Option<String>,
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@@ -963,6 +966,16 @@ pub struct StrategyPortfolioDrawdownControlConfig {
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pub cooldown_trading_days: Option<usize>,
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}
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#[derive(Debug, Clone, Default, Deserialize, Serialize)]
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#[serde(rename_all = "camelCase", deny_unknown_fields)]
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pub struct StrategyPortfolioLossControlConfig {
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pub enabled: Option<bool>,
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pub lookback: Option<usize>,
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pub loss_trigger: Option<f64>,
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pub floor_exposure: Option<f64>,
|
||||
pub cooldown_trading_days: Option<usize>,
|
||||
}
|
||||
|
||||
#[derive(Debug, Clone, Default, Deserialize, Serialize)]
|
||||
#[serde(rename_all = "camelCase")]
|
||||
pub struct StrategyExpressionOrderingConfig {
|
||||
@@ -2176,6 +2189,18 @@ pub fn platform_expr_config_from_spec(
|
||||
));
|
||||
}
|
||||
}
|
||||
if let Some(control) = risk.portfolio_loss_control.as_ref()
|
||||
&& control.enabled.unwrap_or(true)
|
||||
{
|
||||
let parsed = PortfolioLossConfig {
|
||||
lookback: control.lookback.ok_or("portfolioLossControl.lookback is required")?,
|
||||
loss_trigger: control.loss_trigger.ok_or("portfolioLossControl.lossTrigger is required")?,
|
||||
floor_exposure: control.floor_exposure.ok_or("portfolioLossControl.floorExposure is required")?,
|
||||
cooldown_trading_days: control.cooldown_trading_days.ok_or("portfolioLossControl.cooldownTradingDays is required")?,
|
||||
};
|
||||
parsed.validate().map_err(|error| error.to_string())?;
|
||||
cfg.portfolio_loss_control = Some(parsed);
|
||||
}
|
||||
if let Some(control) = risk.portfolio_drawdown_control.as_ref()
|
||||
&& control.enabled.unwrap_or(true)
|
||||
{
|
||||
@@ -4564,6 +4589,27 @@ mod tests {
|
||||
assert_eq!(control.cooldown_trading_days, 30);
|
||||
}
|
||||
|
||||
#[test]
|
||||
fn portfolio_loss_contract_is_explicit_and_validated() {
|
||||
let spec = serde_json::json!({"runtimeExpressions":{"risk":{"portfolioLossControl":{
|
||||
"enabled":true,"lookback":20,"lossTrigger":0.05,"floorExposure":0.2,"cooldownTradingDays":10
|
||||
}}}});
|
||||
let cfg = platform_expr_config_from_value("", "", &spec).unwrap();
|
||||
assert_eq!(cfg.portfolio_loss_control.unwrap(), PortfolioLossConfig {
|
||||
lookback:20, loss_trigger:0.05, floor_exposure:0.2, cooldown_trading_days:10,
|
||||
});
|
||||
for (field, value) in [("lookback", serde_json::json!(0)),
|
||||
("lossTrigger", serde_json::json!(0.01)), ("floorExposure", serde_json::json!(1.1)),
|
||||
("cooldownTradingDays", serde_json::json!(0))] {
|
||||
let mut invalid = spec.clone();
|
||||
invalid["runtimeExpressions"]["risk"]["portfolioLossControl"][field] = value;
|
||||
assert!(platform_expr_config_from_value("", "", &invalid).is_err());
|
||||
}
|
||||
let mut missing = spec.clone();
|
||||
missing["runtimeExpressions"]["risk"]["portfolioLossControl"].as_object_mut().unwrap().remove("lossTrigger");
|
||||
assert!(platform_expr_config_from_value("", "", &missing).is_err());
|
||||
}
|
||||
|
||||
#[test]
|
||||
fn rejects_invalid_portfolio_drawdown_control() {
|
||||
let spec = serde_json::json!({
|
||||
|
||||
@@ -0,0 +1,517 @@
|
||||
//! Causal portfolio-loss state, independent of market-data and order adapters.
|
||||
|
||||
use std::collections::VecDeque;
|
||||
|
||||
use chrono::{DateTime, FixedOffset, NaiveDate, Utc};
|
||||
use serde::{Deserialize, Serialize};
|
||||
use thiserror::Error;
|
||||
|
||||
const STATE_SCHEMA: &str = "fidc.portfolio-loss-state/v1";
|
||||
const MAX_OBSERVATIONS: usize = 120;
|
||||
|
||||
#[derive(Debug, Clone, PartialEq, Serialize, Deserialize)]
|
||||
#[serde(rename_all = "camelCase", deny_unknown_fields)]
|
||||
pub struct PortfolioLossConfig {
|
||||
pub lookback: usize,
|
||||
pub loss_trigger: f64,
|
||||
pub floor_exposure: f64,
|
||||
pub cooldown_trading_days: usize,
|
||||
}
|
||||
|
||||
impl PortfolioLossConfig {
|
||||
pub fn validate(&self) -> Result<(), PortfolioLossError> {
|
||||
if !matches!(self.lookback, 10 | 20 | 40 | 60)
|
||||
|| !self.loss_trigger.is_finite()
|
||||
|| !(0.02..=0.30).contains(&self.loss_trigger)
|
||||
|| !self.floor_exposure.is_finite()
|
||||
|| !(0.0..=1.0).contains(&self.floor_exposure)
|
||||
|| !(1..=120).contains(&self.cooldown_trading_days)
|
||||
{
|
||||
return Err(PortfolioLossError::InvalidConfig);
|
||||
}
|
||||
Ok(())
|
||||
}
|
||||
}
|
||||
|
||||
/// Finalized portfolio accounting, not a market close used as a proxy for NAV.
|
||||
/// Unit NAV must already exclude external deposits and withdrawals.
|
||||
#[derive(Debug, Clone, PartialEq, Serialize, Deserialize)]
|
||||
#[serde(rename_all = "camelCase", deny_unknown_fields)]
|
||||
pub struct ClosedPortfolioSession {
|
||||
pub date: NaiveDate,
|
||||
pub previous_session_date: Option<NaiveDate>,
|
||||
pub available_at: DateTime<Utc>,
|
||||
pub start_unit_nav: f64,
|
||||
pub end_unit_nav: f64,
|
||||
pub start_gross_exposure: f64,
|
||||
pub end_gross_exposure: f64,
|
||||
pub source_sha256: String,
|
||||
}
|
||||
|
||||
impl ClosedPortfolioSession {
|
||||
fn validate(&self) -> Result<(), PortfolioLossError> {
|
||||
let earliest = self.date.and_hms_opt(7, 30, 0).unwrap().and_utc();
|
||||
if [self.start_unit_nav, self.end_unit_nav]
|
||||
.iter()
|
||||
.any(|value| !value.is_finite() || *value <= 0.0)
|
||||
|| [self.start_gross_exposure, self.end_gross_exposure]
|
||||
.iter()
|
||||
.any(|value| !value.is_finite() || *value < 0.0)
|
||||
|| self
|
||||
.previous_session_date
|
||||
.is_some_and(|date| date >= self.date)
|
||||
|| self.available_at < earliest
|
||||
|| self.source_sha256.len() != 64
|
||||
|| !self
|
||||
.source_sha256
|
||||
.bytes()
|
||||
.all(|byte| byte.is_ascii_digit() || (b'a'..=b'f').contains(&byte))
|
||||
{
|
||||
return Err(PortfolioLossError::InvalidObservation);
|
||||
}
|
||||
self.unit_return()?;
|
||||
Ok(())
|
||||
}
|
||||
|
||||
fn unit_return(&self) -> Result<Option<f64>, PortfolioLossError> {
|
||||
let gross = self.start_gross_exposure.max(self.end_gross_exposure);
|
||||
if gross <= 1e-12 {
|
||||
return Ok(None);
|
||||
}
|
||||
let value = (self.end_unit_nav / self.start_unit_nav - 1.0) / gross;
|
||||
if !value.is_finite() {
|
||||
return Err(PortfolioLossError::InvalidObservation);
|
||||
}
|
||||
Ok(Some(value))
|
||||
}
|
||||
}
|
||||
|
||||
#[derive(Debug, Clone, PartialEq, Serialize, Deserialize)]
|
||||
#[serde(rename_all = "camelCase", deny_unknown_fields)]
|
||||
pub struct PortfolioLossDecision {
|
||||
pub execution_date: NaiveDate,
|
||||
pub observed_through: Option<NaiveDate>,
|
||||
pub observation_count: usize,
|
||||
pub trailing_unit_return: Option<f64>,
|
||||
pub threshold_breached: bool,
|
||||
pub newly_triggered: bool,
|
||||
pub risk_off: bool,
|
||||
pub cooldown_before: usize,
|
||||
pub cooldown_after: usize,
|
||||
pub target_exposure: f64,
|
||||
}
|
||||
|
||||
#[derive(Debug, Clone, PartialEq, Serialize, Deserialize)]
|
||||
#[serde(rename_all = "camelCase", deny_unknown_fields)]
|
||||
pub struct PortfolioLossState {
|
||||
schema_version: String,
|
||||
config: PortfolioLossConfig,
|
||||
started_on: NaiveDate,
|
||||
observations: VecDeque<ClosedPortfolioSession>,
|
||||
last_session: Option<ClosedPortfolioSession>,
|
||||
cooldown_remaining: usize,
|
||||
trigger_count: usize,
|
||||
last_decision: Option<PortfolioLossDecision>,
|
||||
}
|
||||
|
||||
#[derive(Debug, Error, PartialEq, Eq)]
|
||||
pub enum PortfolioLossError {
|
||||
#[error("invalid portfolio loss configuration")]
|
||||
InvalidConfig,
|
||||
#[error("invalid finalized portfolio session observation")]
|
||||
InvalidObservation,
|
||||
#[error("portfolio loss state does not match its frozen configuration")]
|
||||
StateMismatch,
|
||||
#[error("portfolio session history is missing, reordered or corrected")]
|
||||
SessionDiscontinuity,
|
||||
#[error("portfolio loss observation is not visible at the decision")]
|
||||
ObservationNotVisible,
|
||||
#[error("portfolio loss decisions must follow trading-session order")]
|
||||
DecisionOrder,
|
||||
}
|
||||
|
||||
impl PortfolioLossState {
|
||||
pub fn new(
|
||||
config: PortfolioLossConfig,
|
||||
started_on: NaiveDate,
|
||||
) -> Result<Self, PortfolioLossError> {
|
||||
config.validate()?;
|
||||
Ok(Self {
|
||||
schema_version: STATE_SCHEMA.to_owned(),
|
||||
config,
|
||||
started_on,
|
||||
observations: VecDeque::new(),
|
||||
last_session: None,
|
||||
cooldown_remaining: 0,
|
||||
trigger_count: 0,
|
||||
last_decision: None,
|
||||
})
|
||||
}
|
||||
|
||||
/// Validation is required after deserialization; a JSON hash alone is not
|
||||
/// account/generation authorization, which belongs to the state owner.
|
||||
pub fn validate(&self, expected: &PortfolioLossConfig) -> Result<(), PortfolioLossError> {
|
||||
expected.validate()?;
|
||||
if self.schema_version != STATE_SCHEMA
|
||||
|| &self.config != expected
|
||||
|| self.observations.len() > MAX_OBSERVATIONS
|
||||
|| self.cooldown_remaining >= expected.cooldown_trading_days
|
||||
{
|
||||
return Err(PortfolioLossError::StateMismatch);
|
||||
}
|
||||
let mut previous = None;
|
||||
for item in &self.observations {
|
||||
item.validate()?;
|
||||
if item.date < self.started_on
|
||||
|| previous.is_some_and(|date| item.date <= date)
|
||||
|| item.unit_return()?.is_none()
|
||||
{
|
||||
return Err(PortfolioLossError::StateMismatch);
|
||||
}
|
||||
previous = Some(item.date);
|
||||
}
|
||||
if let Some(last) = &self.last_session {
|
||||
last.validate()?;
|
||||
if last.date < self.started_on
|
||||
|| previous.is_some_and(|date| date > last.date)
|
||||
|| (last.unit_return()?.is_some() && self.observations.back() != Some(last))
|
||||
{
|
||||
return Err(PortfolioLossError::StateMismatch);
|
||||
}
|
||||
} else if !self.observations.is_empty() {
|
||||
return Err(PortfolioLossError::StateMismatch);
|
||||
}
|
||||
if let Some(decision) = &self.last_decision {
|
||||
let breached = decision
|
||||
.trailing_unit_return
|
||||
.is_some_and(|value| value <= -expected.loss_trigger);
|
||||
let triggered = decision.cooldown_before == 0 && breached;
|
||||
let after = if decision.cooldown_before > 0 {
|
||||
decision.cooldown_before - 1
|
||||
} else if triggered {
|
||||
expected.cooldown_trading_days - 1
|
||||
} else {
|
||||
0
|
||||
};
|
||||
if decision.execution_date < self.started_on
|
||||
|| decision
|
||||
.observed_through
|
||||
.is_some_and(|date| date >= decision.execution_date)
|
||||
|| !decision.target_exposure.is_finite()
|
||||
|| !(0.0..=1.0).contains(&decision.target_exposure)
|
||||
|| decision
|
||||
.trailing_unit_return
|
||||
.is_some_and(|value| !value.is_finite())
|
||||
|| decision.cooldown_after != self.cooldown_remaining
|
||||
|| decision.observation_count > MAX_OBSERVATIONS
|
||||
|| decision.cooldown_before >= expected.cooldown_trading_days
|
||||
|| decision.threshold_breached != breached
|
||||
|| decision.newly_triggered != triggered
|
||||
|| decision.risk_off != (decision.cooldown_before > 0 || triggered)
|
||||
|| decision.cooldown_after != after
|
||||
|| decision.trailing_unit_return.is_some()
|
||||
!= (decision.observation_count >= expected.lookback)
|
||||
|| self.trigger_count
|
||||
> (decision.execution_date - self.started_on).num_days() as usize + 1
|
||||
{
|
||||
return Err(PortfolioLossError::StateMismatch);
|
||||
}
|
||||
} else if self.cooldown_remaining != 0 || self.trigger_count != 0 {
|
||||
return Err(PortfolioLossError::StateMismatch);
|
||||
}
|
||||
Ok(())
|
||||
}
|
||||
|
||||
/// Exact duplicate delivery is idempotent. Historical corrections require
|
||||
/// explicit reconciliation instead of changing an already-used window.
|
||||
pub fn observe(&mut self, session: ClosedPortfolioSession) -> Result<bool, PortfolioLossError> {
|
||||
self.validate(&self.config)?;
|
||||
session.validate()?;
|
||||
if self.last_session.as_ref() == Some(&session) {
|
||||
return Ok(false);
|
||||
}
|
||||
let previous_date = self.last_session.as_ref().map(|value| value.date);
|
||||
if session.date < self.started_on
|
||||
|| session.previous_session_date != previous_date
|
||||
|| previous_date.is_some_and(|date| session.date <= date)
|
||||
|| (previous_date.is_none() && session.date != self.started_on)
|
||||
|| self
|
||||
.last_session
|
||||
.as_ref()
|
||||
.is_some_and(|last| session.start_unit_nav != last.end_unit_nav)
|
||||
{
|
||||
return Err(PortfolioLossError::SessionDiscontinuity);
|
||||
}
|
||||
if session.unit_return()?.is_some() {
|
||||
self.observations.push_back(session.clone());
|
||||
if self.observations.len() > MAX_OBSERVATIONS {
|
||||
self.observations.pop_front();
|
||||
}
|
||||
}
|
||||
self.last_session = Some(session);
|
||||
Ok(true)
|
||||
}
|
||||
|
||||
pub fn decide(
|
||||
&mut self,
|
||||
execution_date: NaiveDate,
|
||||
previous_completed_session: Option<NaiveDate>,
|
||||
decision_at: DateTime<Utc>,
|
||||
risk_on_exposure: f64,
|
||||
) -> Result<PortfolioLossDecision, PortfolioLossError> {
|
||||
self.validate(&self.config)?;
|
||||
if !risk_on_exposure.is_finite() || !(0.0..=1.0).contains(&risk_on_exposure) {
|
||||
return Err(PortfolioLossError::InvalidConfig);
|
||||
}
|
||||
if execution_date < self.started_on
|
||||
|| previous_completed_session.is_some_and(|date| date >= execution_date)
|
||||
|| decision_at
|
||||
.with_timezone(&FixedOffset::east_opt(8 * 3600).unwrap())
|
||||
.date_naive()
|
||||
!= execution_date
|
||||
|| self
|
||||
.last_decision
|
||||
.as_ref()
|
||||
.is_some_and(|last| execution_date < last.execution_date)
|
||||
{
|
||||
return Err(PortfolioLossError::DecisionOrder);
|
||||
}
|
||||
if let Some(last) = &self.last_session {
|
||||
if last.date >= execution_date || last.available_at > decision_at {
|
||||
return Err(PortfolioLossError::ObservationNotVisible);
|
||||
}
|
||||
if Some(last.date) != previous_completed_session {
|
||||
return Err(PortfolioLossError::SessionDiscontinuity);
|
||||
}
|
||||
} else if execution_date != self.started_on {
|
||||
return Err(PortfolioLossError::SessionDiscontinuity);
|
||||
}
|
||||
if let Some(cached) = self
|
||||
.last_decision
|
||||
.as_mut()
|
||||
.filter(|last| last.execution_date == execution_date)
|
||||
{
|
||||
cached.target_exposure = if cached.risk_off {
|
||||
self.config.floor_exposure.min(risk_on_exposure)
|
||||
} else {
|
||||
risk_on_exposure
|
||||
};
|
||||
return Ok(cached.clone());
|
||||
}
|
||||
let trailing = if self.observations.len() >= self.config.lookback {
|
||||
let start = self.observations.len() - self.config.lookback;
|
||||
let mut growth = 1.0;
|
||||
for item in self.observations.iter().skip(start) {
|
||||
growth *=
|
||||
(1.0 + item.unit_return()?.expect("nonzero exposure observation")).max(0.0);
|
||||
}
|
||||
let result = growth - 1.0;
|
||||
if !result.is_finite() {
|
||||
return Err(PortfolioLossError::InvalidObservation);
|
||||
}
|
||||
Some(result)
|
||||
} else {
|
||||
None
|
||||
};
|
||||
let breached = trailing.is_some_and(|value| value <= -self.config.loss_trigger);
|
||||
let before = self.cooldown_remaining;
|
||||
let triggered = before == 0 && breached;
|
||||
let risk_off = before > 0 || triggered;
|
||||
let after = if before > 0 {
|
||||
before - 1
|
||||
} else if triggered {
|
||||
self.config.cooldown_trading_days - 1
|
||||
} else {
|
||||
0
|
||||
};
|
||||
let decision = PortfolioLossDecision {
|
||||
execution_date,
|
||||
observed_through: self.last_session.as_ref().map(|value| value.date),
|
||||
observation_count: self.observations.len(),
|
||||
trailing_unit_return: trailing,
|
||||
threshold_breached: breached,
|
||||
newly_triggered: triggered,
|
||||
risk_off,
|
||||
cooldown_before: before,
|
||||
cooldown_after: after,
|
||||
target_exposure: if risk_off {
|
||||
self.config.floor_exposure.min(risk_on_exposure)
|
||||
} else {
|
||||
risk_on_exposure
|
||||
},
|
||||
};
|
||||
self.cooldown_remaining = after;
|
||||
self.trigger_count += usize::from(triggered);
|
||||
self.last_decision = Some(decision.clone());
|
||||
Ok(decision)
|
||||
}
|
||||
|
||||
pub fn last_session(&self) -> Option<&ClosedPortfolioSession> {
|
||||
self.last_session.as_ref()
|
||||
}
|
||||
pub fn last_decision(&self) -> Option<&PortfolioLossDecision> {
|
||||
self.last_decision.as_ref()
|
||||
}
|
||||
}
|
||||
|
||||
#[cfg(test)]
|
||||
mod tests {
|
||||
use super::*;
|
||||
use chrono::{Duration, TimeZone};
|
||||
|
||||
fn date(day: i64) -> NaiveDate {
|
||||
NaiveDate::from_ymd_opt(2023, 1, 3).unwrap() + Duration::days(day)
|
||||
}
|
||||
fn time(day: i64, hour: u32) -> DateTime<Utc> {
|
||||
Utc.from_utc_datetime(&date(day).and_hms_opt(hour, 0, 0).unwrap())
|
||||
}
|
||||
fn config() -> PortfolioLossConfig {
|
||||
PortfolioLossConfig {
|
||||
lookback: 10,
|
||||
loss_trigger: 0.05,
|
||||
floor_exposure: 0.2,
|
||||
cooldown_trading_days: 3,
|
||||
}
|
||||
}
|
||||
fn session(day: i64, start: f64, end: f64, gross: f64) -> ClosedPortfolioSession {
|
||||
ClosedPortfolioSession {
|
||||
date: date(day),
|
||||
previous_session_date: (day > 0).then(|| date(day - 1)),
|
||||
available_at: time(day, 8),
|
||||
start_unit_nav: start,
|
||||
end_unit_nav: end,
|
||||
start_gross_exposure: gross,
|
||||
end_gross_exposure: gross,
|
||||
source_sha256: "a".repeat(64),
|
||||
}
|
||||
}
|
||||
|
||||
#[test]
|
||||
fn restart_is_exact_and_duplicate_decisions_do_not_consume_cooldown() {
|
||||
let mut state = PortfolioLossState::new(config(), date(0)).unwrap();
|
||||
let mut nav = 1.0;
|
||||
for day in 0..10 {
|
||||
let end = nav * 0.994;
|
||||
state.observe(session(day, nav, end, 1.0)).unwrap();
|
||||
nav = end;
|
||||
}
|
||||
let first = state
|
||||
.decide(date(10), Some(date(9)), time(10, 1), 0.9)
|
||||
.unwrap();
|
||||
assert!(first.newly_triggered);
|
||||
assert_eq!(first.cooldown_after, 2);
|
||||
let serialized = serde_json::to_string(&state).unwrap();
|
||||
let mut restored: PortfolioLossState = serde_json::from_str(&serialized).unwrap();
|
||||
restored.validate(&config()).unwrap();
|
||||
assert_eq!(
|
||||
first,
|
||||
restored
|
||||
.decide(date(10), Some(date(9)), time(10, 1), 0.9)
|
||||
.unwrap()
|
||||
);
|
||||
let lowered = restored
|
||||
.decide(date(10), Some(date(9)), time(10, 2), 0.1)
|
||||
.unwrap();
|
||||
assert_eq!(lowered.target_exposure, 0.1);
|
||||
assert_eq!(lowered.cooldown_after, 2);
|
||||
for day in 10..15 {
|
||||
let end = nav * 1.01;
|
||||
let row = session(day, nav, end, 0.2);
|
||||
state.observe(row.clone()).unwrap();
|
||||
restored.observe(row).unwrap();
|
||||
nav = end;
|
||||
assert_eq!(
|
||||
state
|
||||
.decide(date(day + 1), Some(date(day)), time(day + 1, 1), 0.9)
|
||||
.unwrap(),
|
||||
restored
|
||||
.decide(date(day + 1), Some(date(day)), time(day + 1, 1), 0.9)
|
||||
.unwrap()
|
||||
);
|
||||
}
|
||||
}
|
||||
|
||||
#[test]
|
||||
fn refuses_future_missing_corrected_and_incomplete_accounting() {
|
||||
let mut state = PortfolioLossState::new(config(), date(0)).unwrap();
|
||||
let first = session(0, 1.0, 0.99, 1.0);
|
||||
assert!(state.observe(first.clone()).unwrap());
|
||||
assert!(!state.observe(first.clone()).unwrap());
|
||||
let original = state.clone();
|
||||
let mut changed = first;
|
||||
changed.end_unit_nav = 0.98;
|
||||
assert_eq!(
|
||||
state.observe(changed),
|
||||
Err(PortfolioLossError::SessionDiscontinuity)
|
||||
);
|
||||
assert_eq!(state, original);
|
||||
assert_eq!(
|
||||
state.decide(date(0), None, time(0, 1), 0.9),
|
||||
Err(PortfolioLossError::ObservationNotVisible)
|
||||
);
|
||||
assert_eq!(
|
||||
state.decide(date(2), Some(date(1)), time(2, 1), 0.9),
|
||||
Err(PortfolioLossError::SessionDiscontinuity)
|
||||
);
|
||||
let mut late = PortfolioLossState::new(config(), date(0)).unwrap();
|
||||
let mut delayed = session(0, 1.0, 0.99, 1.0);
|
||||
delayed.available_at = time(2, 1);
|
||||
late.observe(delayed).unwrap();
|
||||
assert_eq!(
|
||||
late.decide(date(1), Some(date(0)), time(1, 1), 0.9),
|
||||
Err(PortfolioLossError::ObservationNotVisible)
|
||||
);
|
||||
let mut invalid = session(1, 0.99, 1.0, 1.0);
|
||||
invalid.end_unit_nav = f64::NAN;
|
||||
assert_eq!(
|
||||
state.observe(invalid),
|
||||
Err(PortfolioLossError::InvalidObservation)
|
||||
);
|
||||
}
|
||||
|
||||
#[test]
|
||||
fn cash_sessions_preserve_continuity_without_inventing_returns() {
|
||||
let mut state = PortfolioLossState::new(config(), date(0)).unwrap();
|
||||
for day in 0..20 {
|
||||
state.observe(session(day, 1.0, 1.0, 0.0)).unwrap();
|
||||
}
|
||||
let decision = state
|
||||
.decide(date(20), Some(date(19)), time(20, 1), 0.9)
|
||||
.unwrap();
|
||||
assert_eq!(decision.observation_count, 0);
|
||||
assert_eq!(decision.trailing_unit_return, None);
|
||||
assert_eq!(decision.target_exposure, 0.9);
|
||||
assert_eq!(state.last_session().unwrap().date, date(19));
|
||||
}
|
||||
|
||||
#[test]
|
||||
fn restored_state_rejects_changed_policy_and_forged_cooldown() {
|
||||
let state = PortfolioLossState::new(config(), date(0)).unwrap();
|
||||
let mut changed = config();
|
||||
changed.floor_exposure = 0.5;
|
||||
assert_eq!(
|
||||
state.validate(&changed),
|
||||
Err(PortfolioLossError::StateMismatch)
|
||||
);
|
||||
let mut forged = state.clone();
|
||||
forged.cooldown_remaining = 1;
|
||||
assert_eq!(
|
||||
forged.validate(&config()),
|
||||
Err(PortfolioLossError::StateMismatch)
|
||||
);
|
||||
}
|
||||
|
||||
#[test]
|
||||
fn nav_serialization_preserves_float_bits() {
|
||||
let mut seed = 0xabcddcba12345678_u64;
|
||||
for _ in 0..2000 {
|
||||
seed ^= seed << 13;
|
||||
seed ^= seed >> 7;
|
||||
seed ^= seed << 17;
|
||||
let value = 0.01 + (seed as f64 / u64::MAX as f64) * 9.99;
|
||||
let serialized = serde_json::to_string(&value).unwrap();
|
||||
let restored: f64 = serde_json::from_str(&serialized).unwrap();
|
||||
assert_eq!(value.to_bits(), restored.to_bits());
|
||||
}
|
||||
}
|
||||
}
|
||||
Reference in New Issue
Block a user